There are claims if former President Donald Trump wins the November election and returns to the White House, he could bring greater chaos to Asia than during his first term.
It is said that based on Trump’s tendencies, if he returns for a second term leveraging his experiences from his first term, he will likely push more forcefully for his positions. During his first term, Trump pursued policies of economic nationalism, isolationism, and prioritized America First in various aspects including economy, diplomacy, and national security.
Victor Cha, Chair of Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), wrote an article titled “America’s Asian Partners Aren’t Worried Enough About Trump,” which was published in the international diplomatic journal Foreign Affairs on the 26th. He argues, “A second Trump administration has a high likelihood of causing significantly more chaos in Asia than the first.”
He stated, “Trump has been outspoken in prioritizing America’s narrow self-interest and advocating for reduced assistance to America’s partners.” He emphasized, “While some Asian leaders may think they can manage the unpredictable Trump as they did during his first term, such confidence is misplaced.”
Cha highlighted that during Trump’s first term, there were seasoned officials capable of managing him, but he suggested that such figures might be absent in his second term. He remarked, “Trump appointed policymakers from previous Republican administrations in his first term, but these experienced veterans are unlikely to return.”
He added, “Trump is much more likely to prioritize loyalty over experience and expertise when forming his cabinet and national security team.”
Cha said, “Trump will likely treat America’s historic allies not as partners but as trade adversaries, and will strive to befriend authoritarian and hostile leaders such as North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and China’s Xi Jinping.” He pointed out that President Joe Biden has restored trust with key allies, established new supply chains, and will likely seek to renegotiate defense spending, particularly abandoning these efforts.
Cha predicted above all else, “Trump’s second term could fundamentally change the Korean Peninsula.”
First, he stated, “If North Korea continues its ballistic missile tests this year, Trump may find himself in a situation similar to 2017, but Trump is unlikely to respond by threatening fire and fury to Kim this time.”
He added, “Instead, it appears that Trump is contemplating a new approach to North Korea, by lifting U.S. sanctions in exchange for Kim stopping nuclear tests.” He suggested North Korea could finalize the agreement by demonstrating visible forms of denuclearization, allowing Trump to assert victory over North Korea’s nuclear threat regardless of the extent of denuclearization.
Cha pointed out in this regard, “Trump could also withdraw U.S. forces from South Korea,” adding, “His desire to do so (withdraw of forces from Europe and other regions in Asia) is already well-known.”
He said, “Such a scenario would almost certainly lead to nuclear armament across the entire Korean Peninsula. If South Korea initiates a nuclear weapons program, it would provide a dangerous incentive for China and North Korea to preemptively acquire nuclear capabilities.”
Cha emphasized, “Even if one of America’s allied countries in Asia stabilizes its bilateral relationship with Trump, the overall regional security could become more unstable if relations with neighboring countries deteriorate.” He further stressed, “Therefore, Asian countries need to act together.”