Monday, December 23, 2024

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Economy'America First' Again: Trump’s Policies Could Shake South Korea’s Export Powerhouse

It is projected that the export industry in Gwangju and the Jeollanam-do region in South Korea will inevitably be affected by the growing emphasis on domestic interests under the leadership of Donald Trump, the next U.S. president.

According to a related report released Monday by the Gwangju-Jeonnam branch of the Korea International Trade Association, Gwangju’s export share to the U.S. in 2023 is 31.0 percent.

The automotive sector dominates, accounting for 72.8%, followed by refrigerators at 13.8% and rubber products, such as tires, at 2.2%.

While Gwangju’s automobile exports to the U.S. have shown steady growth, leading the region’s exports, they are expected to fall directly under Trump’s influence, depending on his future policies for the automobile industry.

It is encouraging that South Korea can adapt to changes in vehicle types, such as internal combustion and hybrid vehicles, even if the U.S. rolls back its eco-friendly policies; however, there remains the possibility that domestic production volumes may be transferred to overseas plants.

Moreover, Gwangju is home to numerous automotive suppliers, suggesting that any downturn in complete vehicle exports could ripple effect on related parts and components manufacturers.

Exports of home appliances have performed well, led by premium AI-powered appliances, but if tariffs on appliances rise under Trump’s administration, demand from U.S. consumers may likely slow.

During the same period, Jeollanam-do’s export share to the U.S. stood at only 7.1%; however, the region has a strong industrial focus on petroleum products, petrochemicals, and steel plates.

Trump’s pro-fossil fuel policies may stabilize international oil prices and potentially boost the competitiveness of South Korean petrochemical products; however, there is also a risk of intensified competition with China in third-country markets.

Steel products could benefit from U.S. measures to counterbalance China, yet there are concerns about heightened competition in third-country markets due to China’s oversupply.

A Korea International Trade Association representative stated, “With Trump’s return to power strengthening U.S.-centered policies, trade industries are expected to face inevitable disruptions for the time being.”

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