North Korea’s repeated threats of provocation in response to the regular U.S.-South Korea joint exercise Freedom Shield (FS) have not materialized into action. Analysts suggested North Korea has adopted a low-key approach to the joint exercise, likely due to more pressing concerns such as monitoring the ceasefire and peace negotiations in the Ukraine conflict.
This stance is believed to be influenced by a combination of factors: the fluid dynamics of U.S.-Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks, U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy, and South Korea’s turbulent political climate as it awaits the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the presidential impeachment.
Verbal Bombs Instead of Nuclear Bombs: North Korea Refrains from Action
North Korea, which has long criticized U.S.-South Korea joint exercises as invasion rehearsals, unleashed a barrage of criticism through statements and commentaries even before FS commenced on March 10.
On March 4, Kim Yo Jong, deputy director of the Workers’ Party, hinted at potential military retaliation for the deployment of the U.S. nuclear aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) to the Korean Peninsula. On March 7, the Korean Central News Agency warned of inevitable consequences: “A retaliation to the joint exercise is inevitable.”
Some speculated that North Korea might showcase its nuclear capabilities during the U.S.-South Korea joint exercises as Kim Jong Un visited the construction site of the Nuclear-Powered Strategic Guided Missile Submarine two days before the exercise began.
While North Korea conducted low-intensity provocations, such as a cruise missile launch on February 26 and a close-range ballistic missile (CBRM) launch on March 10, Seoul and Washington paid little attention to them. Unlike previous provocations, North Korea refrained from extensive propaganda coverage of these events.
Since then, North Korea has limited its responses to verbal attacks. On March 12, it released a commentary blaming the recent fighter jet accidental bombing in Pocheon, Gyeonggi Province, on the reckless joint exercises. On Sunday, it condemned the additional deployment of U.S. F-35U.S.ealth fighters to the Iwakuni base in Japan. On Monday, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement criticizing the G7 foreign ministers’ call for North Korean denuclearization.
Kim Jong Un Prioritizes Economy and Public Welfare, Maintaining Strategic Distance
Analysts interpret Kim Jong Un’s inspection of the construction site for 10,000 housing units in Pyongyang’s Hwasong district on March 15, amid ongoing U.S.-South Korea joint exercises, as a symbolic move highlighting North Korea’s current priorities.
The supreme leader’s focus on public welfare and the economy rather than security issues during the U.S. and SU.S. Korean joint exercises implies that North Korea does not intend to escalate tensions.
North Korea appears more interested in diplomatic maneuvers than military provocations. Progressing ceasefire and peace negotiations regarding the Ukraine war, for which North Korea has reportedly provided military support, is likely a top priority. This interest stems from the potential to gain insights into Trump’s diplomatic strategy through Russia and reassess potential benefits to be received from Russia based on the conflict’s outcome.
The visit of a Russian delegation led by the deputy foreign minister to North Korea, just two days after announcing a 30-day U.S.-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, indicates active communication between North Korea and Russia on ceasefire and peace-related issues.
Trump’s unpredictable “America First” foreign policy, which has sparked tariff wars even with allies, contributes to North Korea’s cautious approach. The bitter memory of the U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi six years ago, which ended with Trump’s unilateral declaration of collapse, likely makes Kim hesitant to respond hastily to Trump’s overtures.
South Korea’s ongoing political instability is also believed to influence North Korea’s restraint. With the Constitutional Court’s ruling on South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment looming, North Korea may see little benefit in excessive military provocations, preferring not to draw unwanted international attention to itself during this sensitive period.