North Korea announced on Thursday, just three days after the U.S.-South Korea summit, that it would participate in China’s Victory Day celebrations, marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War and the anti-fascist war. Kim Jong Un, the General Secretary of North Korea’s Workers’ Party, is drawing attention as this will be his first North Korea–China summit in six years and his first multilateral diplomatic engagement.
Notably, given that Kim has previously met with Chinese President Xi Jinping around the times of U.S.–North Korea and inter-Korean summits to discuss the overall situation and response strategies, there is speculation that this meeting indicates North Korea’s readiness to re-enter the diplomatic arena.
The Korean Central News Agency and the Chinese Foreign Ministry simultaneously announced Kim’s visit to China in the afternoon, stating that he would attend the event at President Xi’s invitation.
This will mark the first meeting between Kim and Xi since their two encounters in 2019. In January 2019, ahead of the Hanoi summit with President Donald Trump, Kim visited China, and in June of that same year, Xi visited Pyongyang.
Analysts suggest that Kim’s visit to China, following the U.S.–South Korea and U.S.–Japan summits, serves as a counterbalance to the close ties between those countries.
Professor Lim Eum-chul from Kyungnam University’s Institute for East Asian Studies stated that the anti-fascist alliance between North Korea and China, as well as between North Korea and Russia, represents a counter-response to U.S.–South Korea–Japan security cooperation. He added that Kim’s sudden visit to China can be seen as a strategic move to gain the upper hand in the Korean Peninsula’s situation through Russia and China, aiming to undermine the coordinated denuclearization pressure from the U.S. and its allies.
In this context, experts anticipate that Kim will focus more on bilateral meetings with China and Russia, as well as potential trilateral talks among North Korea, China, and Russia, rather than broader multilateral diplomacy. His primary focus is expected to be on restoring the somewhat strained North Korea–China relationship, which has been overshadowed by closer ties with Russia, in order to secure a reliable ally.
North Korea and China have shown signs of mending their previously strained relations this year. The Workers’ Party’s official newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, recently highlighted the North Korea–China summit held in 2018 as a remarkable event, stating that the friendship between North Korea and China will continue to strengthen and develop.
On the other hand, Kim may have visited China in preparation for establishing a new diplomatic direction. North Korea plans to set a new foreign policy at its 9th Workers’ Party Congress, scheduled for late this year or early next year. Following President Trump’s recent reaffirmation of his willingness to meet with Kim during the U.S.–South Korea summit, observers suggest that North Korea might be initiating strategic communication with China to formulate a comprehensive new diplomatic policy.
Historically, China has played a crucial role in Kim’s significant diplomatic engagements. Kim visited China before the April 27, 2018, inter-Korean summit and returned in May after the summit to meet with Xi. A week after the June 12, 2018, U.S.–North Korea summit in Singapore, he quickly traveled to Beijing again to share assessments of the situation and discuss response strategies.
During this meeting between Xi and Kim, analysts speculate they will discuss strategies to respond to unexpected developments, such as potential gestures from Trump toward North Korea at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled for late October in Gyeongju.
Kim In-tae, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy, noted that North Korea has often leveraged its alliance with China ahead of important strategic milestones. Further noting that as North Korea approaches its 9th Party Congress, where it will establish a new five-year plan, political strategy is crucial. Therefore, he believes Kim’s visit to China is not merely to counterbalance the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, but reflects a more complex consideration of the overall geopolitical landscape.