The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, scheduled from October 31 to November 1, will feature a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Analysts suggest that this APEC gathering could ignite discussions on modernizing the U.S.-South Korea alliance among South Korea and its two major allies.
On September 19, President Trump announced via social media, following a call with President Xi, that they would meet at the APEC summit in Korea. He also revealed plans for an early 2024 visit to China.
This will be the first time in 13 years that both U.S. and Chinese leaders will simultaneously visit South Korea, the previous occurrence being during the 2012 Nuclear Security Summit. This development has significantly bolstered interest in the Gyeongju APEC summit.
For South Korea, the central issue is whether the U.S. and Chinese leaders will address matters concerning the Korean Peninsula—particularly North Korea. There is considerable interest in whether President Xi might directly challenge the strategic flexibility of U.S. forces in Korea.
Some analysts foresee that discussions on Taiwan could naturally lead to talks regarding U.S. forces in Korea.
China has recently escalated provocations in gray zones, such as the Taiwan Strait. On September 12, China conducted test operations with its aircraft carrier Fujian in the strait. The following day, China sharply criticized the transit of the U.S. destroyer Higgins and the British frigate Richmond through the same waters, accusing them of undermining regional stability.
Amid Alliance Discussions and Taiwan Issues, China Show a Keen Interest in U.S. Forces in Korea
A source familiar with South Korea-China relations, who recently attended a private meeting in China, reported significant Chinese interest in the role of U.S. forces in Korea within the context of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.
The Trump administration seeks to modernize the U.S.-South Korea alliance by shifting its traditional focus on North Korean threats to address the evolving security landscape marked by intensified U.S.-China competition.
This initiative has included proposals either to reduce U.S. troop numbers in Korea or to expand their role in the broader Indo-Pacific region, including the Taiwan Strait.
Major General Xavier Brunson, commander of U.S. Forces Korea—who previously stirred controversy by describing these forces as an aircraft carrier in front of China—recently emphasized the importance of a rapid allied response in times of crisis. He cited China’s 2022 Taiwan encirclement exercises, prompting some to interpret his remarks as a call for Korea to more actively endorse an expanded role for U.S. forces.
However, some experts predict that long-standing economic issues, such as tariff exemptions and the relaxation of trade restrictions, will take precedence. They contend that security matters, where significant differences remain, may only serve to reaffirm existing positions.
Both leaders are expected to prioritize economic issues that can yield tangible results, potentially deferring more complex security matters for subsequent discussions.
Professor Min Jeong-hoon of the National Diplomatic Academy’s Americas Research Department noted that given the substantial differences in security and military strategy, achieving short-term results will be challenging. Further noting that this meeting will likely reaffirm baseline positions on Taiwan support, while both leaders focus on building consensus on pressing economic issues, and more detailed security discussions will likely be reserved for future meetings.