Kim Jong Un, the General Secretary of North Korea’s Workers’ Party, flaunted his friendship with U.S. President Donald Trump and hinted at the possibility of dialogue. Kim set an unlikely condition that the U.S. must completely abandon its pursuit of denuclearization. On Monday, experts suggested that the U.S. might prioritize normalizing relations with North Korea over denuclearization efforts.
Lee Soo-hoon, head of External Cooperation at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA), and Ham Hyung-pil, director of the Security Strategy Research Center, co-authored a report titled, Defense Strategy Planning, Alliances, and North Korea Policy Directions for a Potential Trump Administration 2.0. They argued that while Trump strongly desires dialogue with North Korea, he is more likely to prioritize the symbolic declaration to end the Korean War over complete denuclearization.
The report stated that the Trump administration’s objectives for North Korea-U.S. dialogue are relatively clear, adding that Trump believes he can end the Korean War through negotiations.
However, the report noted that North Korea now wields significantly more diplomatic leverage than during the 2018 summit, thanks to increased cooperation with Russia and China. The analysts concluded that the initiative for resuming dialogue now rests with North Korea.
The report speculated that, given the current circumstances, Kim has little incentive to engage with the U.S. It suggested he might leverage Trump’s eagerness for talks to reject negotiations and increase his bargaining power.
The authors also highlighted perspectives in Washington suggesting that Trump might pursue a small deal by offering to ease sanctions or pause U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises in exchange for a freeze on intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing.
The report predicted that a potential Trump administration would likely focus on normalizing relations with North Korea rather than pushing for complete denuclearization. It suggested that Trump might aim for personal accolades—such as a Nobel Peace Prize—based on a symbolic declaration to end the Korean War.
During a speech at the 13th session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly on September 20 and 21, Kim indicated openness to dialogue with the U.S., contingent on Washington completely abandoning its denuclearization demands.
He emphasized that if the U.S. abandons its unrealistic obsession with denuclearization and acknowledges the reality, it has no reason to refuse face-to-face talks. However, it will never relinquish the nuclear arsenal.