As President Donald Trump prepares to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, speculation has reignited about a potential second meeting between the North Korean and U.S. leaders at Panmunjom. Reports indicate that Trump is internally considering a meeting with Kim Jong Un, the General Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea.
Given Trump’s penchant for impromptu proposals, North Korea is expected to prepare for various scenarios by October 29—the date of Trump’s visit to South Korea—according to analysts on October 19.
On October 18, CNN reported that Trump privately discussed a potential meeting with Kim during his upcoming Asia trip with key officials. This closed-door discussion suggests that only a select few within the administration were involved, possibly indicating Trump’s uncertainty about the likelihood of contact with North Korea materializing.
Nevertheless, this report reaffirms Trump’s continued interest in meeting with General Secretary Kim. Some observers speculate that CNN’s report might reflect the U.S. administration’s strategy—potentially testing North Korea’s response by making the first move.
These discussions harken back to the impromptu meeting between the leaders of North Korea, South Korea, and the U.S. at Panmunjom on June 30, 2019. After attending the G20 summit in Japan from June 28-29, Trump proposed a meeting with Kim via social media while en route to Seoul, leading to an unexpected trilateral gathering.
However, the current geopolitical landscape differs significantly from that of 2019. While North Korea had not completely abandoned denuclearization talks then, Kim has since publicly rejected denuclearization and strengthened ties with Russia and China, forming an anti-U.S. coalition with socialist countries.
Even without a leaders’ summit, there remains potential for meaningful high-level contact between North Korea and the U.S. Now asserting its status as a nuclear power, North Korea is closely monitoring U.S. movements while using this stance as a precondition for dialogue. Kim’s recent remarks suggest that North Korea hasn’t entirely closed the door on diplomacy with the U.S.
While the 2019 summit appeared spontaneous, it is worth noting that behind-the-scenes communications likely occurred prior to Trump’s social media proposal. There is a possibility that North Korea and the U.S. have once again utilized informal channels such as the New York Channel for communication. Even without prior contact, their experience with such diplomatic events could facilitate rapid agreement if urgent communication becomes necessary.
Yang Mu-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, suggests that while the U.S. is informally preparing for various scenarios, a meaningful response from North Korea remains elusive. He notes that North Korea is approaching U.S.-North Korea dialogue cautiously but adds that given Trump’s unpredictable nature, an impromptu meeting can’t be entirely ruled out.
Currently, most analysts consider a sudden meeting between the North Korean and U.S. leaders unlikely. Having experienced the humiliation of the failed 2019 Hanoi summit, North Korea is less inclined to engage in high-level talks without a clear blueprint from the U.S.
However, some speculate that North Korea may not want to appear as if it is cutting off communication with the U.S., given Trump’s limited time in office. This suggests that while a leaders’ summit may be off the table, high-level contact could still be possible.
Im Eum-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, suggests that Kim likely sees through Trump’s showmanship diplomacy. However, he speculates that Kim might soon articulate a position through a statement by Kim Yo-jong, thereby preserving their personal connection while maintaining Trump’s dignity.
Given Trump’s unpredictable style and affinity for symbolic gestures, the possibility of an unexpected proposal before his South Korea visit remains. North Korea will likely spend the next ten days deliberating whether to dismiss this as political theater or to respond with calculated flexibility.