The military has analyzed North Korea’s recent claim about launching a hypersonic short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) on October 22, suggesting it could be part of Pyongyang’s deception tactics.
Data provided to Rep. Kang Dae-sik of the People Power Party on Wednesday reveals that South Korean forces assessed the flight pattern of the North Korean missile detected on October 22 as similar to conventional ballistic missiles, specifically the existing Hwasong-11 series, rather than exhibiting hypersonic characteristics.
The Defense Intelligence Agency stated that based on the flight trajectory, it believes it’s more likely a high-weight ballistic missile, specifically the Hwasong-11D, rather than a hypersonic missile. No characteristics of hypersonic gliding were observed in the missile’s trajectory.
Previously, the Joint Chiefs of Staff speculated that the two missiles launched on October 22 were likely SRBM Hwasong-11D-4.5 variants with heavy conventional warheads. Some experts, however, suggested the possibility that North Korea’s reference to a new hypersonic vehicle might indicate the recently unveiled Hwasong-11M.
The Hwasong-11M, first showcased at the Defense Development-2025 exhibition in Pyongyang earlier this month, is a new SRBM featuring a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) warhead mounted on the existing Hwasong-11 launch platform.
If successfully developed, this missile could potentially evade missile defense systems through unpredictable maneuvers, altering altitude and direction, making it a formidable next-generation weapon.
However, military authorities suspect that North Korea’s announcement may be an attempt to create the impression that the Hwasong-11M development is complete.
The Defense Intelligence Agency noted that while North Korea introduced the Hwasong-11M as a hypersonic glide missile during their recent military parade, the latest launch report used the vague term hypersonic vehicle without mentioning Hwasong-11M or hypersonic glide. This suggests possible deception tactics by North Korea.
They added that the South Korean military conducts data-driven analysis while considering North Korea’s claims. U.S. and South Korean intelligence agencies are currently performing detailed analysis on the missile type and other specifics.
On October 22, at approximately 8:10 a.m., multiple short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) were observed launching northeast from North Korea’s Junghwa area in North Hwanghae Province. This marks the first ballistic missile launch since President Lee Jae Myung took office, resuming after a five-month hiatus. Some analysts suggest it could be a calculated show of force ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.