North Korea has taken a hardline stance, claiming South Korean drones have reappeared and threatening to hold the South responsible. This situation has reignited tensions between North and South Korea over drone activities, following a drone incident that occurred before the emergency martial law was declared in October 2024.
On Saturday, North Korea’s military General Staff issued a statement asserting that South Korean drones violated their airspace on January 4 and in September of last year. While not directly accusing the South Korean military, North Korea presented evidence, including the drone’s fuselage and flight records, arguing that the launch point was in a restricted area, thus implicating South Korean authorities.
According to a comprehensive report by News1 on Sunday, experts believe it’s unlikely that the South Korean military operated the type of drone North Korea has disclosed, based on the components and flight altitude revealed.
The Ministry of National Defense stated in their response that initial investigations show the military does not possess the drone in question and did not operate any drones during the timeframe mentioned by North Korea. The ministry added that it plans to conduct a thorough investigation in cooperation with relevant government agencies into the possibility of civilian drone operations.
However, the possibility of unofficial military operations against North Korea can’t be ruled out. Even if a civilian drone crossed into North Korean territory, military authorities would likely face criticism for lapses in border surveillance.
It’s worth noting that civilians can potentially construct drones capable of reaching North Korea, with components available for purchase for about 300,000 to 600,000 KRW (approximately 225 to 450 USD).
Experts assess that the flight path and operational methods presented by North Korea do not conclusively demonstrate involvement by the South Korean military or government. They note that drones with similar capabilities can be assembled using commercially available components, making it difficult for authorities to track all launches without prior notification from civilian operators.
According to North Korean claims, the drone that crashed on the 4th took off from the Ganghwa area of Incheon, flying about 97 miles at an altitude of roughly 330 to 980 feet before making a forced landing in Kaesong’s Kaepung area. They also alleged that another drone crashed last September after taking off from Paju, Gyeonggi Province, flying about 104 miles at an altitude of around 980 feet before crashing near Kaesong.
North Korean media released debris from these incidents, along with installed camera equipment, flight data, and some photographs taken over North Korean airspace.
Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, noted that the drone’s appearance matches a commercially available Chinese model (Skywalker Titan 2160).
He explained that this model is well-known among drone enthusiasts and industrial drone manufacturers globally, and being for commercial use, it’s not subject to military export controls.
The individual components of the drone North Korea revealed are available on platforms like AliExpress for around 300,000 to 600,000 KRW (225 to 450 USD).
Hong estimated that configuring the drone to carry out the claimed about 99-mile flight, equipped with a GPS autopilot and video recording capabilities, would cost roughly 900 to 1,125 USD. He noted that the reported flight specifications fall within the drone’s technical limits, making such a mission feasible without fuel-related constraints.
Some analysts suggest that North Korea may be overstating the drone’s capabilities. Hong pointed to inconsistencies in Pyongyang’s claims, noting that while the Skywalker Titan 2160 can theoretically reach altitudes of roughly 9,800 to 16,400 feet, its maximum flight time is limited to about four hours and 24 minutes. He also observed that the camera shown does not appear to be a high-resolution optical device.
Experts generally agree that military operations using such low-cost, outdated drones are unlikely. They believe that civilian-operated drones could penetrate inter-Korean defenses, possibly using pre-programmed flight paths that enable autonomous operation after takeoff.
However, this method has limitations, including an inability to respond to changing conditions and uncertainty about mission success until the drone is recovered.
An anonymous North Korea expert referenced a 2023 incident where a domestically-built drone flew to North Korea’s Mount Kumgang and back, suggesting similar civilian involvement or a loss of control in this case.
The consensus is that such drone operations make military involvement even less likely.
From a military perspective, using low-altitude, low-cost drones for intelligence gathering while risking interception and armistice violations seems illogical.
Some speculate about civilian involvement, recalling the discovery of a North Korean blue drone a decade ago.
Some analysts cautiously suggest North Korea might be staging this incident, noting similarities to previous North Korean drones sent to South Korea.
In 2014, North Korea successfully flew such a drone over South Korea, even capturing images above the Blue House. Similar drones were found in various locations that year.
These earlier drones were small reconnaissance units capable of flying roughly 110 to 185 miles and were equipped with commercially available cameras.
More recently, in December 2022, five North Korean drones invaded South Korean airspace for over seven hours, with one reaching as far as northern Seoul.
These low-performance drones are challenging to detect and intercept, potentially serving as asymmetric threats if weaponized.
Kim Min Seok, a military expert, claimed that a similar drone crashed in Gyeonggi Province last November, with the military finding no evidence of North Korean origin.
He asserted that the recently disclosed drone also flew from South Korea, likely launched by civilians. However, Kim later made his video private shortly after its release.