With just three months until the 2026 International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) World Cup in North America, Iran, recently hit by massive airstrikes from the U.S. and Israel, has hinted at potentially withdrawing from the tournament. This development has significantly boosted the chances for Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to step onto the World Cup stage in Iran’s place.
On March 1, Mehdi Taj, president of the Iran Football Association, stated via Iranian state television that given the current situation with U.S. airstrikes, it’s hard to envision the participation in this World Cup.
Iran, having topped Group A in the Asian third qualifying round to secure their spot in the finals, was drawn into Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand.
Their group stage opener against New Zealand and Belgium is set for SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, while their third match against Egypt is scheduled at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.
The geopolitical landscape shifted dramatically on February 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched extensive attacks on Iran, resulting in the deaths of numerous Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran swiftly retaliated by targeting U.S. military bases in neighboring countries, escalating tensions across the Middle East. The situation has deteriorated rapidly and shows no signs of quick resolution.
In light of these events, Iran’s participation in the North American World Cup, co-hosted by the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, has become increasingly unlikely.
The fact that all three of Iran’s group stage matches are slated to take place on U.S. soil further complicates matters, given the current all-time low in U.S.-Iran relations.
FIFA is closely monitoring the unfolding situation. FIFA Secretary General Mattias Grafström emphasized that its primary goal is to ensure all qualified teams can participate and that the World Cup proceeds safely.
The BBC has reported that FIFA officials, speaking off the record, still expect Iran to take part in the World Cup.
However, many experts and international media outlets predict a high likelihood of Iran’s non-participation. The BBC noted that if Iran does boycott, Iraq and the UAE could be in line to fill the vacant World Cup spot.
Asia has been allocated 8.5 spots for this World Cup finals.
Alongside Iran, South Korea, Japan, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Australia, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have already secured their places in the finals.
Iraq advanced to the intercontinental playoffs after a nail-biting 3-2 victory over the UAE in the fifth qualifying round. They’re now set to face the winner of the Bolivia-Suriname match on April 1 in Mexico, with the victor earning a direct ticket to the World Cup finals.
Should Iran forfeit its World Cup berth, Iraq would automatically secure a spot in North America, regardless of their playoff result. Furthermore, if Iraq triumphs in their playoff match, the UAE could also find themselves with a golden opportunity to qualify for the finals.