For the 10th time this year, North Korea sent balloons carrying trash. Around 500 balloons were launched. Approximately 480 of these balloons fell into South Korean territory, indicating an effectiveness rate of 96%, the highest among the ten launches.
According to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), the 480 balloons that landed in the country yesterday were primarily concentrated in northern Gyeonggi Province and Seoul.
Based on the information released by the JCS so far, the effective drop rates of North Korean trash balloons in South Korea are as follows: 1st launch 57.7%, 2nd launch 12.5%, 3rd launch 24.2% (The first three rates are based on specific time aggregates, not final totals), 5th launch 28.6%, 6th launch 40%, 7th launch 38.8%, 8th launch 20%, and 9th launch 48%. The number of drops during the 4th launch was not disclosed.
The only time the effective drop rate exceeded 50% was during the first launch. During the third launch, the military identified that balloons North Korea sent also drifted into North Korean territory or the East Sea. At that time, military authorities estimated that many balloons fell into mountains and the sea beyond the South Korean military’s observation range, analyzing North Korea’s inefficient trash balloons.
However, during the 10th launch, most balloons landed in South Korean territory. Notably, some balloons fell within the grounds of the presidential office in Yongsan, Seoul.
While balloons from North Korea had previously landed near the National Museum of Korea, Yongsan District Office, and shops near Itaewon Station, this marks the first instance of debris being discovered within the presidential office compound. Some balloons also landed near the National Assembly and U.S. military bases.
Regarding the continued intention behind North Korea’s balloon launches, there is analysis suggesting it may not simply be to harass South Korea but to gather data for accurately dropping balloons with potential weaponization in the future.
Since the fifth launch, North Korea has primarily sent balloons containing square-shaped empty paper instead of waste, which could increase fatigue among South Korean citizens. They have also launched balloons during westerly winds, indicating a possible change in their launch methods or locations based on wind direction.
Concerns persist that if North Korea uses the balloon lift data it has accumulated to send balloons containing biochemical agents to targeted areas in South Korea, it could pose a severe threat to both the military and civilians.
Yang Wook, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, stated, “The effective landing rate within South Korea has exceeded 90%. We must view this as an act of aggression rather than a response to anti-North Korean leaflets. This is a completely different phase and should be seen as violating our airspace.”
“It is complacent to respond mildly, assuming the balloons contain no harmful substances. North Korea could combine GPS devices with timers in the balloons. We must prepare for the possibility of more precise landing mechanisms to ensure our readiness against such provocations,” Yang added.