Bitcoin Pauses at 64,000 USD: U.S. Midterm Elections as a Potential Catalyst
Analysts have observed a recurring pattern where Bitcoin (BTC) typically dips before U.S. midterm elections, only to rebound afterward. With the price currently hovering around 64,000 USD, market watchers are keen to see if history will repeat itself.
As of 9:10 a.m. (Korean time) on Friday, Bitcoin was trading at 91,748,000 KRW (about 64,080 USD) on South Korea’s Bithumb exchange, down 0.02% from the previous day.
Simultaneously, CoinMarketCap reported the global Bitcoin price at 64,722 USD, up 1.19% from the day before.
João Vedson, founder of crypto analysis platform AlphaRactal, noted that Bitcoin has historically entered bearish territory about a year before U.S. midterm elections, followed by a prolonged uptrend post-election.
Vedson pointed out that while Bitcoin tends to bottom out around election time, it typically peaks shortly after the inauguration of newly elected officials.
This aligns with previous findings from Binance Research, which showed Bitcoin averaging a 56% decline during midterm election periods, but rebounding by an average of 54% in the subsequent year. Analysts attribute this to improved investor sentiment following the resolution of political uncertainties.
However, Vedson cautioned that a definitive bullish trend would require clear signs of market capitulation, deleveraging, and fresh capital inflows.
Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen positive momentum, with FarSight Investors reporting net inflows of 32.7 million USD into global Bitcoin spot ETFs on Thursday.
Coinbase Q2 Revenue Falls Short at 1.22 Billion USD
Coinbase, America’s leading cryptocurrency exchange, reported second-quarter revenue below market expectations.
According to CoinDesk, Coinbase’s Q2 revenue came in at 1.22 billion USD, missing the market’s projected 1.29 billion USD.
Trading revenue also disappointed, reaching only 590 million USD against forecasts of 628 million USD.
These results reflect the broader struggles in the crypto market, with Bitcoin and Ethereum down approximately 14% and 25% respectively in Q2, leading to contracted trading volumes and prices.
Strategy Posts 8.2 Billion USD Net Loss in Q2
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, reported a shift to deficit in Q2 due to falling cryptocurrency prices.
The Block reported that Strategy recorded a net loss of 8.22 billion USD and an operating loss of 8.33 billion USD in Q2. This marks a stark contrast to the 10.02 billion USD net profit from the same period last year.
The loss primarily stems from unrealized valuation losses as cryptocurrency prices declined. As of July 26, Strategy held 843,775 Bitcoins.
Delay in Clarity Act Adds Pressure to Crypto Market
Analysts suggest that the diminishing prospects of the Clarity Act passing this year are increasing downward pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
JP Morgan recently reported that the Clarity Act was expected to establish a clear regulatory framework, potentially catalyzing financial firms’ entry into the crypto space. However, delays in passing the bill are weakening a key market catalyst.
The bank further noted that prolonged delays could result in the benefits of tokenization and blockchain-based Apple lications being absorbed by traditional financial market infrastructure rather than public blockchains.