It was speculated on June 13, that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first visit to North Korea after 24 years was planned ahead of the 74th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War to avoid stirring up tensions in South Korea-Russia relations and the U.S.-South Korea alliance.
Putin’s visit is expected to take place on the 18th and 19th, but neither North Korea nor Russia have made official announcements as of yet.
Putin’s upcoming visit to North Korea is expected to take place in response to Kim Jong Un’s visit last September and is expected to further highlight the political significance of the alliance and cooperation that has been ongoing for the past two years.
North Korea has helped Russia overcome the shortage of supplies due to the prolonged invasion of Ukraine by providing ballistic missiles and conventional weapons. Russia, in turn, has strengthened its relationship with North Korea by supplying refined oil and other tailored countermeasures.
There is speculation that during this upcoming summit, both sides will further solidify their “friendly” relationship and potentially announce symbolic agreements such as a new declaration or treaty. Specifically, they may announce cooperation in the event of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula and in space development.
However, from Russia’s perspective, it is expected to calibrate its approach to not overly provoke the West, let alone the South Korea-U.S. alliance. The current closeness between North Korea and Russia is largely temporary cooperation based on mutual necessity, and ultimately, there is a need to restore other diplomatic relationships.
On the 6th, Putin expressed gratitude towards South Korea for not directly supplying weapons to Ukraine, hinting at a readiness to restore South Korea-Russia relations. This is interpreted as a need to manage South Korea-Russia relations from a medium-to-long-term perspective.
In this context, it is speculated that Putin’s decision to visit North Korea before the 74th anniversary of June 25 (Korean War) is also part of this management mode to solidify relations.
Doo Jin Ho, Head of the International Strategy Research Department at the Korea Defense Research Institute’s Security Strategy Research Center, pointed out that “Putin’s visit to North Korea is largely due to North Korea’s earnest request.” He cited North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui’s visit to the Kremlin in January and the visit of Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin, to North Korea in March, indicating that preparations for the summit have been underway for quite some time.
Doo added, “Considering Russia’s presidential election in March and Victory Day on May 9, it seems that they chose to visit North Korea in June. However, efforts to seek stable management of South Korea-Russia relations by avoiding a date like June 25 are also noteworthy.”