A recent analysis by experts suggests that the strengthened relationship between North Korea and Russia, often regarded as North Korea’s blood ally, appears to be easing China’s concerns as China recently appeared to be distancing itself. The potential for deepening the triangular relationship between North Korea, China, and Russia, which seemed to be stagnating, remains viable.
On the 27th, Choi Eun Ju, a research fellow at the Sejong Institute’s Center for Korean Peninsula Strategy, emphasized in a report “the potential deepening of North Korea-China-Russia relations and the necessity for effective crisis management.”
She stated, “With President Vladimir Putin’s visit to North Korea and the signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, North Korea and Russia have established their closest relationship since the end of the Cold War,” adding, “Through the preamble of the agreement, it was confirmed that the exchange and cooperation between North Korea and Russia will proceed unhindered by external restrictions.”
Regarding this, Choi argued that from China’s perspective, which has been North Korea’s closest ally, “The strengthening of North Korea-Russia relations can be a burden, but it also has an aspect that alleviates China’s burden.”
Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, refused to evaluate Putin’s visit to North Korea during a regular briefing on the 18th. Lin stated, “It pertains to exchanges between Russia and North Korea.” Meanwhile, there has been a prediction that China is not pleased with Putin’s visit to North Korea, but Choi emphasized the positive aspects of the visit instead.
Choi cited the content of the joint statement announced after the summit between China and Russia in May as evidence. At that time, both countries agreed to deepen their strategic partnership and strengthen cooperation rather than competition, alleviating China’s potential concerns stemming from Russia and benefiting China’s overall diplomacy.
She also noted Russia’s stance, as mentioned in the China-Russia joint statement, which mentioned the issue of Chinese vessels navigating the Tumen River. She said, “Russia supports China’s constructive discussion on issues related to North Korea.”
The development issue in the Tumen River area is as crucial an economic concern for Russia as it is in military matters. Originating from Mount Paektu, the Tumen River forms the border between North Korea and China, flowing eastward for 325 miles until it meets the Sea of Japan. The final stretch of the river, spanning about 6 miles, lies in the border region between Russia and North Korea.
Russia has been concerned about China’s expanding influence in this region and has been historically negative towards Chinese ship navigation. However, discussions on the development of the Tumen River project were reintroduced during the recent summit. Therefore, conditions are now set for closer trilateral discussions among the three countries, at least concerning the Tumen River issue.
Meanwhile, Choi suggested that the government should be cautious about providing lethal weapons to Ukraine in the face of Russia’s pressure. This could potentially provide Russia with a pretext to strengthen its military cooperation with North Korea.
Choi advised, “With the tightening of North Korea-Russia relations, it is important to acknowledge the current situation where South Korea and the international community’s means of intervention in North Korea are decreasing. Therefore, it is necessary to pursue various policy measures, including diplomatic means accumulated by South Korea so far.”