Over the past month, North Korea has sent hostile messages to South Korea, citing the “incident of South Korean military drones infiltrating Pyongyang” as a pretext and suggesting that it would send its own drones to Seoul. However, the situation has remained quiet for about a week.
On October 28, through its state0run media, North Korea released “the final investigation results of the serious sovereignty infringement incident by a drone originating from South Korea” in the form of a statement from a Defense Ministry spokesperson. North Korea claimed that the drone took off from Baengnyeong Island and officially confirmed that the South Korean military was responsible.
Following this announcement, Kim Yo Jong, deputy director of the Workers’ Party, threatened to send a drone over Seoul to drop leaflets criticizing South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol. However, no drone activity from North Korea has since been observed. After initially intensifying tensions with this incident and dismantling parts of the Gyeongui and Donghae inter-Korean railways, North Korea seems to have paused its provocations after releasing the investigation findings.
Meanwhile, North Korea has shifted focus, launching a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-19, which signals a redirection of its hostilities toward the United States. Analysts believe the missile launch, the first in about ten months, serves as a reminder to the U.S. of North Korea’s strategic capabilities, particularly in light of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
North Korea’s ongoing deployment of troops to Russia and efforts to secure achievements in economic sectors ahead of year-end assessments may also influence this posture shift. However, the drone incident aligns with North Korea’s long-standing approach to its strained relationship with South Korea, suggesting that provocations or psychological tactics targeting the South could resume as North Korea’s policy stance remains unchanged.
On Sunday, the Rodong Sinmun also introduced a new organization targeting the South, the “Institute for Research on Enemies.” This institute is believed to be a rebranding of the previous Institute for National Reunification under the Workers’ Party’s United Front Department. It has now been renamed the Directorate of Enemy Studies. This change suggests North Korea is internally reorganizing its strategies and organizations aimed at South Korea, potentially establishing a new approach.