Donald Trump, the President of the United States, and Ishiba Shigeru, the Prime Minister of Japan, are set to hold their first summit meeting. Experts suggest that the alliance invoice the U.S. will present to South Korea and Japan will be similar, making this U.S.-Japan summit a preview event that could inform future diplomatic strategies toward the U.S.
Trump and Ishiba will meet on Friday in Washington, D.C.
Following his meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister, Trump has chosen Japan as his second summit partner. This indicates his intention to strengthen relations with Japan, one of the most cooperative allies in Northeast Asia, as the U.S. ultimately needs to address China.
The U.S. and Japanese leaders are expected to discuss various topics, including economic and security issues, and adopt a joint statement emphasizing the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Observing Trump’s Core Alliance Approach: A Preview for U.S.-South Korea Relations
From South Korea’s perspective, this U.S.-Japan summit offers an opportunity to gauge Trump’s stance toward South Korea. Given the current challenges in conducting summit-level diplomacy due to the impeachment proceedings following the December 3 martial law incident, this meeting allows for an assessment of President Trump’s approach to key allies.
Since both South Korea and Japan host U.S. troops, issues related to the cost of stationing these forces and defense spending are likely to arise.
Japanese media outlets predict that Trump may demand an increase in defense spending to more than 3% of Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, Japanese analysts believe that increasing defense spending beyond 2% is challenging for Japan, making it noteworthy whether the two leaders can find common ground.
The issue of defense cost-sharing is also a core agenda item between the U.S. and South Korea. During his first term, Trump argued that South Korea should bear five times the current defense costs. Recently, he referred to South Korea as a money machine, stating that the defense costs we should bear amount to nine times the current level, causing a stir.
Tariffs and Containing China’s influence: Potential Subtle Pressures from Trump
In his first term, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea was used as leverage to increase defense cost-sharing; moving forward, there is speculation that tariffs may replace the troop withdrawal card. Observing how Trump imposed tariff “bombs” on Canada, Mexico, and China shortly after taking office and secured concessions such as strengthened border security, this prediction holds merit.
Trump also perceives Japan as a wealthy nation, indicating that the agendas Japan and South Korea will each handle with the U.S. are similar. Therefore, attention is focused on Trump’s stance on defense costs and tariffs during his meeting with Ishiba. Additionally, the U.S. is likely to assert that South Korea and Japan should take a leading role in containing China.
Professor Park Won Gon of Ewha Womans University stated, “South Korea and Japan have many overlapping agendas with the U.S., such as defense cost-sharing,” and “both countries also have trade surpluses with the U.S. The level of tariff pressure on Japan will serve as a touchstone to predict the tone of future U.S.-South Korea summits.”
However, Trump is expected not to apply the so-called madman strategy, previously showcased against Canada, Mexico, China, and Palestine, to South Korea and Japan. He maintained a good relationship with Japan during his first term and may need South Korea’s assistance in future negotiations with North Korea.
The key issue is when South Korea’s political situation will stabilize. Delays in setting core agendas between the U.S. and South Korea could increase uncertainties in the alliance, and Trump’s transactional nature may lead to limited patience.
Cho Jin Goo, Director of the Japan Center at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, commented, “The current situation provides us with time to prepare strategies to respond to the U.S.,” but added, “However, this does not necessarily work positively for South Korea in the future, so continuous efforts to manage relations with the U.S. are necessary.”