North Korea’s Nuclear Plans Clash with ‘People-First’ Ideology, Analysts Warn

North Korea has recently ramped up its provocative rhetoric, going as far as mentioning “war preparations” aimed at the U.S.-South Korea security alliance. Analysts believe Pyongyang is highlighting external threats to reconcile the contradictions between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s core policies of “strengthening nuclear capabilities” and the regime’s “people-first” ideology.

A report titled “New Framework for Korean Unification,” released on Saturday by the Korea Institute for National Unification, points out a significant disconnect between North Korea’s outward policy of “enhancing nuclear deterrence” and its internal “Five-Year National Economic Development Plan.”

Kim’s regime has promoted a “people-first” ideology, prioritizing improving citizens’ quality of life. Efforts include constructing modern housing in Pyongyang and other regions and developing infrastructure like factories and hospitals in rural areas to reduce the urban-rural divide.

However, the regime’s simultaneous expansion of its nuclear program demands significant military spending on nuclear and missile development and testing. As a result, the report indicates that ordinary citizens are being forcibly mobilized for construction projects.

The report suggests that this situation is likely breeding significant internal discontent. To mitigate these policy contradictions and suppress negative public sentiment, North Korea has recently emphasized U.S.-South Korea military exercises as a “serious military threat” to foster strong internal unity.

North Korea has consistently criticized the U.S.-South Korea alliance. On February 14, it compared their relationship to that of “master and servant,” accusing Seoul of supporting Washington’s hegemonic strategy. Earlier on February 9, North Korea warned that recent joint air exercises involving U.S. B-1B bombers and U.S.-South Korea air drills would only lead to “undesired outcomes.”

However, the report notes that various factors could shift the regime’s strategy of controlling its citizens through provocations against the U.S. and South Korea. If economic hardships continue to spark widespread dissatisfaction, or if natural disasters like last summer’s flooding along the Yalu River recur, North Korea may be forced to adjust its foreign policy and seek humanitarian aid and economic assistance.

Additionally, changes in South Korea’s policies following a government transition or improvements in U.S.-North Korea relations under a potential second Trump administration could prompt North Korea to reconsider its “hostile” stance toward Seoul.