A study has found that cancer incidence and mortality rates are expected to increase sharply over the next 30 years, with disparities between countries projected to widen.
According to industry sources on Monday, Professor Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu’s team from Charles Sturt University in Australia analyzed the prevalence and incidence rates of 36 types of cancer in 185 countries as of 2022. They assessed this based on demographic factors such as age, gender, region, and HDI (Human Development Index), which reflects average health, education, and income outcomes in each country.
The results predict that by 2050, there will be 35.3 million new cancer cases worldwide, a staggering 76.6% increase from 2022. Additionally, cancer-related deaths are expected to rise to 18.5 million, marking an increase of 89.7%.
The study found significant disparities in cancer incidence and mortality based on HDI. Countries with low HDI are projected to experience a 142.1% rise in cancer cases and a 146.1% rise in deaths by 2050.
In contrast, countries with very high HDI are expected to experience a 41.7% increase in incidence and a 56.8% increase in mortality.
The study also discovered that men had higher incidence and mortality rates than women in 2022, with this gap expected to widen to up to 16% by 2050. Men’s cancer incidence is projected to increase by 84.3% and mortality by 93.2% by 2050, while women’s incidence is expected to rise by 68.5% and mortality by 85.2%.
The researchers explained that men’s higher cancer incidence and mortality rates are due to greater exposure to modifiable risk factors, such as tobacco and alcohol use, as well as a tendency to underutilize screenings and treatments.
The researchers collected data on the number of cancer cases and deaths relative to the total population, adjusting this to explain differences in age distribution within populations. The Mortality-to-Incidence Ratio (MIR) measure is calculated by dividing the number of cancer deaths by the number of new cases.
A higher MIR indicates that a greater proportion of individuals diagnosed with cancer are dying from the disease, reflecting lower survival rates.
The overall MIR for all cancers was 46.6% in 2022. For men, it was 51.7%, 64.3% for those aged 75 and older, 69.9% for low HDI countries, 67.2% for the African region, and a striking 89.4% for pancreatic cancer.
Meanwhile, these findings were published in the November issue of the international academic journal JAMA Network Open.