North Korea Implements As Planned Despite U.S.’ Demands
No Sign Of Imminent Launch
North Korea is expected to launch its military reconnaissance satellite in May, following its announcement that it will carry out the mission as planned. To increase the success rate of the launch, North Korea is focusing on technical improvements through tests and verification.
According to military authorities on the 29th, the South Korean military has not detected any signs of imminent launch. However, North Korea is preparing to launch a reconnaissance satellite from the West Sea Satellite Launch Site in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province.
Regarding the estimated period for North Korea’s launch of military reconnaissance satellites, Defense Minister Shin Won Sik stated on the 8th, “We initially believed that North Korea could launch the reconnaissance satellite in March and kept a close watch on them, but it seems they are making some additional improvements. If the current technical improvements proceed smoothly, there is a high possibility of a launch in mid to late April.”
Military authorities had predicted North Korea would launch the reconnaissance satellite around significant dates such as the Day of the Sun on the 15th, the birthday of Kim Il Sung, and the founding anniversary of the Korean People’s Revolutionary Army on the 25th. However, a military official reported that the launch is being delayed.
North Korea is expected to continuously improve its technical capabilities to increase the success rate of the reconnaissance satellite launch.
The U.S. North Korea specialized media Beyond Parallel reported on the 16th (local time) that it had detected North Korea preparing to launch a reconnaissance satellite earlier this month but canceled it by comparing satellite photos of the VIP observation facilities and the administrative security headquarters inside the West Sea Satellite Launch Site.
Also, the U.S. North Korea specialist media 38 North reported on the 22nd (local time) that North Korea is building a new launch pad, control center, and observatory at the West Sea Satellite Launch Site, analyzing satellite photos taken by the French high-resolution satellite Pleiades on the 18th of this month.
Typically, signs of an imminent reconnaissance satellite launch are confirmed through the standing of the projectile or notification to the Japanese Maritime Safety Agency and the International Maritime Organization (IMO). North Korea is usually known to stand the projectile on launch day.
North Korea notified the Japanese Maritime Safety Agency and the IMO two days before the first attempt to launch the reconnaissance satellite on May 31 last year. The notification for the second launch attempt made on August 24 last year also took place on the 22nd, two days before the launch.
Also, on November 21 last year, early in the morning, North Korea notified the Japanese Maritime Safety Agency that it planned to launch a satellite between 0:00 on November 22 and 0:00 on December 1, but the actual launch took place late at night on the 21st.
There are several North Korean anniversaries in May such as the Three Principles of National Reunification presentation (3rd), Kim Jong Un’s appointment as party chairman day (9th), and the Five Policies of National Reunification presentation (24th). However, there are no significant anniversaries that could be linked to the launch of the reconnaissance satellite.
After successfully launching the reconnaissance satellite, North Korea announced that it would launch it three more times this year. On the 27th, it stated that the development of space technology, including the reconnaissance satellite, is an essential strategic choice to guarantee survival and that it will carry out the mission as planned regardless of the U.S.’ request to suspend it.
However, at the 14th U.S.-South Korea-Japan Security Consultative Meeting (DTT) on the 24th, defense officials from the U.S., South Korea, and Japan condemned North Korea’s use of ballistic missile technology to launch a reconnaissance satellite as a clear violation of the UN Security Council resolutions.