Experts in the U.S. have pointed out that North Korea’s trash balloons reflect the vulnerability and instability of the North Korean regime. If North Korea commits to terrorism, it could pose a serious threat.
Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC, and Researcher Andy Lim stated this in an emergency question report related to North Korea’s trash balloons on July 2. In the report, they noted, “Including Robert Carlin, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, and Siegfried Hecker, an emeritus professor at Stanford University, some experts claim that Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war just like his grandfather.”
However, they pointed out, “This hypothesis has attracted a lot of attention, but it may not have accurately reflected reality,” adding, “If Kim were actually preparing for war, he would not have sold all his ammunition to Russia.”
They further argued, “If war is their hidden card, Kim would not have decoupled (severed relations) with South Korea. North Korea’s strategic deception tactics are all about disrupting the enemy. If war was imminent, North Korea would not be announcing future attacks but repeatedly urging a South-North peace plan as they did just before the Korean War.” They analyzed North Korea’s trash balloon launches as “a preemptive measure to weaken South Korea’s new unification policy.”
They explained, “The current South Korean government is pursuing a unification policy based on the values of freedom and human rights, not competing with North Korea (the regime), but appealing to North Korean residents who should enjoy such freedom.”
They described this as “a unification of universal freedom, such as freedom from fear, deprivation, and starvation, and the freedom to be educated, not North Korea being absorbed by the South.” They added, “This is a strong message to North Korean residents. If they listen, it will be more threatening than any U.S.-South Korea military exercises or nuclear strategic bomber coastline flights.”
They analyzed, “Kim is trying to take preemptive measures against this by severing all relations with South Korea and erasing the concept of unification from the minds of North Korean residents.”
They also pointed out that North Korea’s act of launching trash balloons itself is “a clear admission that their ideology and thoughts have collapsed in South Korea,” and “North Korea knows that sending leaflets about Kim Il Sung’s Juche ideology to South Korea is nothing but a laughing matter. Now they are sending trash balloons as an alternative.”
However, they emphasized, “Just because these balloons reflect the vulnerability and instability of North Korea (the regime), they should never be taken lightly,” emphasizing, “The trash-filled balloons and the damage they cause are somewhat a soft terror.”
They warned, “If they put an unidentified white powder in the balloon instead of waste, it will create a panic among South Korea and have a negative impact on foreign capital in the Korean economy.”
They also expressed concern about the South Korean government’s decision to resume loudspeaker broadcasts toward North Korea in response to North Korea’s trash balloon launches.
They mentioned the threat made by Kim Yo Jong, the deputy director of the North Korean Workers’ Party and the younger sister of the Supreme Leader, to destroy the loudspeaker with a military attack in the past. They said, “South Korea’s response of resuming loudspeaker broadcasts can escalate the current tension,” adding, “This will lead to dangerous tension along with recent GPS signal disruptions, DMZ violations, and missile demonstrations.”