The Korean Peninsula has been included among the top ten conflicts this year.
The International Crisis Group (ICG), headquartered in Belgium, identified the Korean Peninsula in its “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025” report released on Wednesday. Notably, the same reports published in 2023 and 2024 did not include the Korean Peninsula.
ICG explained that in 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un designated South Korea as a “hostile state.” In 2024, North Korea strengthened its ties with Russia through military dispatches, while South Korea experienced President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed emergency martial law and the subsequent impeachment decision by the National Assembly.
The report emphasized that the rapidly evolving situation on the Korean Peninsula is creating a tense atmosphere as 2025 approaches. It added that Donald Trump’s potential return to the U.S. presidency further amplifies regional uncertainties.
They further analyzed that while Trump may not proceed with the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea, he could demand increased defense cost-sharing from South Korea. This could lead to a rise in domestic calls for South Korea to develop its nuclear weapons.
The report cautioned that any perceived ambiguity in U.S. defense commitments to South Korea could embolden North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
While the ICG assessed that Kim is unlikely to initiate a nuclear conflict due to self-preservation concerns, they warned of the possibility of provocations resulting from miscalculations.
ICG stated that stimulated by relations with Russia, upheavals in Seoul, and mixed signals from Trump, Kim might undertake provocations in some form.
In addition to the Korean Peninsula, ICG identified Syria, Sudan, Ukraine, and Europe (Russia-Ukraine war), Israel and Palestine, Iran versus the U.S. and Israel, Haiti, the U.S. and Mexico, Myanmar, and China and the U.S. as conflicts to watch in 2025.
The ICG acknowledged the difficulty of generalizing the factors behind these diverse conflicts, given their unique root causes. However, they noted that China, Russia, and, to some extent, North Korea are challenging the U.S.-led order that has prevailed in Asia and Europe for decades.
The report concluded that as global dynamics shift at an accelerating pace, the world appears primed for a paradigm shift, leaving the critical question of whether this transformation will unfold through diplomatic channels or on the battlefield.