North Korea has informed the Japanese government of its plan to launch a satellite on May 27, the day of the Korea-China-Japan summit.
This appears to be an attempt to heighten interest in North Korea at the tripartite meeting while also highlighting differences of opinion between Korea, Japan, and China on North Korea, thereby further clarifying the existing Korea-U.S.-Japan vs. North Korea-China-Russia standoff. The Japanese Coast Guard announced that it received notification from North Korea in the early morning that a satellite rocket would be launched between midnight on May 27 and midnight on June 4.
According to the Japanese media NHK, all expected fall zones are outside Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), including two locations in the northwest sea of North Korea and one in the Pacific east of the Philippines.
The Coast Guard has issued a navigation warning and urged ships to be cautious of falling debris.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida instructed relevant departments to cooperate in collecting and analyzing information thoroughly to provide the public with accurate information. He also emphasized the importance of working closely with the U.S., South Korea, and other relevant countries to demand that North Korea cancel its launch. Furthermore, he directed preparations for any unforeseen events.
In response to North Korea’s notification, diplomatic officials from South Korea, the U.S., and Japan held a meeting over the phone. They concurred that North Korea’s satellite launch using ballistic missile technology violates UN Security Council resolutions and agreed to demand its cancellation.
North Korea had previously notified the International Maritime Organization (IMO) via the Japanese Coast Guard of the launch period and maritime danger zones ahead of three artificial satellite launches last year.
After failing twice (in May and August), North Korea declared success in the November launch, which was criticized for being a surprise launch in the same maritime danger zones.
North Korea had notified the Japanese government that it would “launch an artificial satellite between midnight on November 22 and midnight on December 1” but launched it around 10:46 PM on November 21, causing chaos from the Japanese Official Residence in southern Okinawa.
After launching the first military reconnaissance satellite (Malligyong-1) and placing it in orbit, North Korea declared that it would launch three more this year.
The South Korean military has already detected signs that North Korea is preparing to launch the second military reconnaissance satellite.
On May 24, a military official revealed that “recent signs suggesting preparations for the launch of a military reconnaissance satellite as claimed by North Korea have been identified in the vicinity of Dongchang-ri, North Korea, and the South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities are closely monitoring and tracking the related trends.”
North Korea’s sudden alarm of satellite launch is interpreted as an attempt to influence the Korea-China-Japan summit.
By touching on the differences in positions between Korea, Japan, and China in North Korea, it seeks to prevent the three countries from falling into a close relationship as much as possible. Additionally, it seeks to solidify the Korea-U.S.-Japan vs. North Korea-China-Russia alignment by firmly involving China in the close relationship between North Korea and Russia.
While China is close to North Korea and Russia, it is cautious about an excessively close relationship between them, considering its relations with the international community, including the U.S. and Europe.
All eyes are on the joint declaration of today’s summit and each leader’s words.
China has consistently demanded moderation in North Korea-related expressions in declarations and other documents. At the previous meeting in 2019, the content was limited to efforts towards completely denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.
There is speculation that a similar level of text will be included in the declaration this time, but North Korea’s notification at the summit could also create the possibility of a more advanced text.