Analysts believe North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s absence from the Victory Day military parade held in Moscow on May 9 may have been a calculated move to pressurize Russia into delivering on its promised concessions.
In a report titled “Key Trends in North Korea-Russia Relations on the Occasion of Russia’s Victory Day,” senior researchers Kim In Tae and Lee Gee Dong at the Korea National Institute for Security Strategy (KNISS) argued that Pyongyang is deliberately holding off on a Russia visit and summit as strategic leverage.
Instead of attending the event himself or dispatching other high-ranking officials, such as Choe Hae, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korea sent military generals stationed in Kursk to meet directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Pyongyang declined to participate in the parade, including representatives from 13 other countries.
Analysts believe Kim may have concluded that his attendance would primarily boost Putin’s diplomatic image, without increasing the leverage or value of concessions North Korea seeks from Russia. By sending military officials instead, Kim is seen as sending a subtle but pointed message to Moscow that the promised deliverables must be fulfilled.
The researchers suggest that Kim’s visit to Russia will likely occur only under one of two conditions: Russia’s promised support does not materialize and pressure is needed, or North Korea confirms a smooth and stable flow of benefits.
They also identify two potential windows for a visit: the first anniversary of the bilateral treaty signed in June 2024 (around June 19) or August 15, North Korea’s Liberation Day. The researchers added that Pyongyang may be seeking a broader scope of support than what Moscow has publicly offered thus far.
Since the June 2023 North Korea-Russia summit, Pyongyang has offered extensive backing to Russia, including the deployment of military personnel and shipments of ammunition and missiles. Although Moscow has responded with limited military technology and economic assistance, the researchers noted that these measures may fall short of meeting Pyongyang’s overall demands.
Given North Korea’s goal of expanding its gains across political, military, economic, and diplomatic sectors following its alliance declaration, the regime will likely use any future summit with Putin to present a longer and more ambitious list of requests.