North Korea appeared to soften its hostile stance toward South Korea during the repatriation process of residents who were rescued by the South Korean side after drifting at sea.
North Korea responded to indirect communication through the United Nations Command. Despite imperfect prior coordination, they sent patrol boats near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the East Sea to transfer residents according to the schedule provided by South Korea. Overall, there’s a perception that the Lee Jae-myung administration is continuing to ease the rigid approach seen since its inception.
While Direct Communication Between North and South Korea Is Still Absent, They Seem to Have Found Common Ground
This morning, the government repatriated six individuals, presumed to be North Korean fishermen, who had been rescued in the West and East Seas in March and May. The Coast Guard and military personnel cooperated to transfer the residents onto a single vessel and guide them to the vicinity of the NLL in the East Sea, where they handed them over to the North Korean authorities.
The most notable aspect of the repatriation process is that, despite the lack of direct communication between the two Koreas, North Korea dispatched patrol boats to facilitate the handover of residents in line with South Korea’s schedule.
Since North Korea did not respond to communication through any inter-Korean channels, including the liaison office and military communication lines, the South Korean government conveyed the repatriation plan to the North through the United Nations Command on two occasions last week and again this week. Reports indicate that specific details, including the schedule and maritime coordinates, were communicated.
While North Korea acknowledged receipt of the repatriation plan, it did not provide a definitive response indicating it would act according to the plan. However, they prepared to hand over the residents at the designated time and location that South Korea provided. The South Korean government also detected signs that North Korea would respond appropriately on the day of the transfer.
Since the New Administration Took Office, North Korea Has Ceased Hostile Broadcasts and Toned Down Aggressive Messaging
Although North Korea declared a “two-state” policy in December 2023 and rejected communication with South Korea and the United Nations Command, it has shown a different attitude since the Lee Jae-myung administration took office.
On June 25, North Korea used the direct “pink phone” line with the UN Command to notify them that they had resumed border line work. This measure disconnects communications along the Military Demarcation Line (MDL). This official notification came months after they had resumed work in the spring.
It has been customary for both Koreas to notify the UN Command when conducting necessary activities near the MDL. North Korea’s delayed notification seems to indicate an effort to adhere to this custom after the new South Korean government took office.
North Korea responded to the new South Korean government’s announcement of policies to control anti-North Korean leaflet distribution and cease loudspeaker broadcasts as de-escalation measures. Less than a day after South Korea stopped its loudspeaker broadcasts, North Korea turned off its hostile broadcasts, and Kim Jong Un significantly reduced aggressive remarks toward South Korea.
Experts view North Korea’s actions as a response to the new South Korean government, interpreting it as a recognition that responding to proactive, conciliatory measures would not be detrimental to their interests.
While it remains challenging for North and South Korea to adopt a forward-looking attitude in their relations immediately, analysts believe that the upcoming 9th Party Congress, scheduled for the end of this year or early next year, will require North Korea to broaden its strategic options as it prepares a new five-year national policy plan.
North and South Korea Achieved Implicit Communication on Humanitarian Measures, Contributing to Tension Reduction
The South Korean government continues to pursue conciliatory measures toward North Korea, exercising restraint in actions that could be perceived negatively by the North.
The government stated that the repatriation of the North Korean residents is solely a humanitarian measure and separate from efforts to improve inter-Korean relations. This indicates a commitment to avoid unnecessarily pressuring North Korea.
Nevertheless, the implicit communication between the two Koreas during the repatriation process is believed to have a positive impact on easing tensions. This repatriation confirmed that both sides can coordinate when humanitarian measures are necessary. From the South Korean government’s perspective, this could be seen as another achievement following the control of anti-North Korean leaflets and the cessation of loudspeaker broadcasts.
Professor Kim Jung of the University of North Korean Studies noted that while there was officially no response, the South Korean government likely had some confidence that North Korea would show up, which can be interpreted as implicit communication.
However, many experts still believe it’s premature to conclude that inter-Korean relations have transformed or that communication has fully resumed based solely on current developments.
Professor Park Won Gon from Ewha Womans University stated that the lack of effective communication during this repatriation process is evident. He further explained that if negotiations between North Korea and the United States proceed next year, there may be opportunities for South Korea to engage and expand contact with the North.