As the leaders of North Korea and Russia attend the Wednesday Victory Day event, marking the 80th anniversary of the triumph in the Anti-Japanese War and World War II, at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, observers are keen to see if China will maintain its policy of keeping North Korea and Russia at arm’s length.
Multiple North Korean sources report that Kim Jong Un, General Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, left Pyongyang by private train on the afternoon of Monday. Kim is expected to reach Beijing by the morning of Tuesday, and he is slated to watch the Victory Day parade in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, the Korean Central News Agency also reported that General Secretary Kim had departed the previous day by private train, accompanied by Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui and other high-ranking party and government officials. It is unusual for North Korea to publicly announce its supreme leader’s overseas trip immediately after departure.
The spotlight of this Victory Day event is undoubtedly on General Secretary Kim. This marks the first time a North Korean leader has attended China’s Victory Day parade since Kim Il Sung in 1959, a gap of 66 years.
Notably, the leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia are expected to stand side by side at the Tiananmen Gate. According to the Kremlin, Kim will be positioned to President Xi’s left, with President Putin on Xi’s right.
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President Putin had already visited Tianjin, China, on August 31 to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. The SCO is a multilateral security, political, and economic forum with ten member countries, including China, Russia, India, Iran, and Belarus, often viewed as a de facto anti-Western alliance.
This meeting follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of a 50% punitive tariff on India for importing Russian oil, prompting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to align more closely with Chinese and Russian leaders.
Modi, visiting China for the first time in seven years, held bilateral talks with President Xi on August 31 and President Putin on Monday, sharing photos of these discussions on social media and effectively sending a strategic message.
The unity displayed among China, Russia, and India is expected to shift to a North Korea–China–Russia alliance during the Victory Day celebrations on Wednesday. Analysts suggest that the sight of these three leaders together following the SCO summit will significantly bolster the impact of the anti-Western coalition.
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Yang Gap-yong, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy, stated that among President Xi’s guests, Putin is Number 1, and Kim is Number 2, and that they will receive appropriate treatment. He emphasized that the image of the three leaders together at the Tiananmen Gate will send a significant political message to countries like the U.S.
However, analysts widely believe that even if President Xi meets with the North Korean and Russian leaders during this Victory Day event, these interactions will likely remain bilateral.
Historically, China has been extremely cautious about being associated with a North Korea–China–Russia framework. Chinese experts maintain that the emergence of cooperation among North Korea, China, and Russia, often referred to as a new Cold War, does not align with China’s national interests.
A notable example is that since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Russia has hinted at the possibility of North Korea participating in existing joint military exercises with China, showing an ongoing effort to bind North Korea, China, and Russia together. However, China has maintained its policy of keeping its distance.
Yang added that China remains extremely wary of being entrenched in a North Korea–China–Russia framework and will likely avoid highlighting this tripartite relationship in any official reports.