Despite President Donald Trump’s repeated overtures, the North Korea-U.S. summit failed to materialize. Trump publicly expressed his willingness to meet with Kim Jong Un during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, stating he was 100% open to the encounter. However, North Korea remained officially silent.
On October 30, as Trump headed home, he declared that he would come back to meet with Kim. Yet, analysts now speculate that this meeting may be pushed into next year.
North Korea Exercises Patience Through Value Enhancement Diplomacy, Employing Delay Tactics
During the APEC summit, Trump referred to North Korea as a sort of nuclear power, seemingly acknowledging the country’s nuclear status. This marks a shift from the 2018-2019 negotiations that focused on complete denuclearization. His comments suggest a pivot towards managing North Korea’s nuclear issue rather than pursuing outright elimination, indicating a desire to treat Kim as an equal negotiating partner. By hinting at the possibility of easing sanctions, Trump actively sought a response from Kim.
However, North Korea’s reaction was cold. Neither Kim nor his sister, Kim Yo Jong, nor any official channels, including the Foreign Ministry or the Korean Central News Agency, made any formal comments regarding the U.S. proposal.
Instead, North Korea launched a cruise missile just before the APEC summit and the day before Trump’s visit to South Korea. Additionally, Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui visited Russia and Belarus during Trump’s stay, essentially sending a silent rejection signal. However, this could also be interpreted as a deliberate delay tactic to enhance their bargaining power.
Diplomatic circles predominantly believe that North Korea is buying time, observing any shifts in the Trump administration’s stance. From North Korea’s perspective, Trump’s keen interest in a summit already elevates their negotiating leverage. Responding immediately would give the U.S. an advantage, so they are likely calculating to delay their response to maximize their bargaining position. This strategy could also be seen as waiting for the U.S. to move closer to their conditions for abandoning denuclearization efforts.
Professor Lim Eul-chul from Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies analyzed that North Korea’s silence and missile launch signal a rejection of a surprise meeting, but they intend to resume dialogue on their own terms and timeline.
Potential for Change Between North Korea’s Workers’ Party Congress in January and Trump’s Visit to China in April
The first key moment for renewed contact between North Korea and the U.S. is early January. Typically, North Korea finalizes its foreign and military policies during the end-of-year Workers’ Party plenary meeting (held in late December) and announces specifics in a New Year’s message or event on December 31 or January 1.
While a plenary meeting is scheduled for December this year, the more crucial event is the 9th Workers’ Party Congress in January. This congress occurs every five years, and its decisions carry the highest authority. The new diplomatic course set by North Korea could significantly impact external relations.
If North Korea signals a willingness to engage with the U.S. or reveals concrete plans during the party congress, the U.S. is expected to respond quickly, facilitating renewed contact between the two nations.
The second key moment will be President Trump’s planned visit to China in April. Following the U.S.-China summit on October 30, Trump announced his intention to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April. If meaningful communication occurs between North Korea and the U.S. by then, there is a strong possibility of either Trump’s visit to North Korea or Kim’s visit to China, paving the way for a meeting or formal talks between the two leaders.
Even if relations remain cool until then, there is potential for a new style of dialogue with China acting as a mediator. North Korea could leverage China’s guarantees to enhance their negotiating power, while the U.S. could more easily pursue a managed exploratory approach aligned with its agenda toward China.