On Tuesday, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is open to dialogue with the U.S. The agency predicts that the U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises, expected to take place in March next year, will be a pivotal moment for potential North Korea-U.S. talks. The NIS assessment indicates that Kim’s health remains stable.
Following a congressional oversight hearing at the NIS headquarters in Seoul, Park Sun-won of the Democratic Party and Lee Sung-kwon of the People Power Party, who serve as the ranking members of the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee, disclosed that the NIS has confirmed through various channels that North Korea has been covertly preparing for dialogue with the United States.
North Korea is meticulously monitoring U.S. developments and appears to have analyzed key figures from the Trump administration, according to Lee. He noted that North Korea seems to have assessed the inclinations of the U.S. administration’s North Korea task force, and subtle shifts in their rhetoric regarding nuclear armament have been detected. The NIS analysis suggests that following Kim’s September 20-21 remarks hinting at conditional dialogue with the U.S. if denuclearization is abandoned, he has been moderating his stance on nuclear weapons.
Lee revealed that there’s evidence that North Korea deliberated until the last minute about Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui’s visit to Russia, considering the possibility of dialogue with the U.S. Choe’s departure from Pyongyang for Russia and Belarus on September 26, coinciding with President Donald Trump’s visit to South Korea, was interpreted as North Korea’s intent to avoid creating opportunities for contact with the U.S.
The NIS informed the National Assembly that March is anticipated to be a turning point for potential North Korea-U.S. talks. Typically, the U.S. and South Korea conduct their regular joint military exercises around March, which North Korea has historically responded to with provocations. This suggests that North Korea might seek dialogue while avoiding periods of heightened tension on the Korean Peninsula.
Regarding inter-Korean relations, Lee Sung-kwon reported that the NIS has observed North Korea maintaining a two-state approach. They have issued directives prohibiting contact with South Korean organizations at overseas missions, responding differently to South Korea and the U.S., and strictly adhering to principled positions, effectively blocking any potential for improving relations.
The NIS also predicted that North Korea would attempt to amend its constitution next year to reflect the two-state theory regarding inter-Korean relations.
However, Park noted that the intensity of North Korea’s unilateral denunciations of South Korea has decreased, indicating a shift from a confrontational phase to a relatively calm period.
Kim Continues to Bolster His Personal Cult of Personality, Emphasizing Unique Achievements Like Dispatch of Troops to Russia
Park reported that despite known underlying health issues, Kim has been managing long-distance travel between provinces and Pyongyang and participating in various events without significant problems, suggesting his health remains stable.
Park also highlighted that North Korea is creating mosaic murals depicting Kim’s on-site guidance across the country and producing new badges featuring his face. This showcases an independent cult of personality that surpasses that of his predecessors, Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il.
Notably, there appears to be an effort to glorify the troops sent to Russia and highlight Kim’s troop dispatch as a significant achievement. This includes manipulating the narrative around the recovery of Kursk from Ukraine into a new victory myth reminiscent of the 1950s. Reports also indicate plans to establish two military museums in Pyongyang.
Regarding Kim’s daughter, Ju-ae, Park commented that this year, she has expanded her activities into the diplomatic realm, solidifying her position as a potential successor. However, since her trip to China in September, her public appearances have noticeably decreased. He added that she seems to have been out of the public eye for the last 60 days after completing her schedule in China on September 4.
Park elaborated that this reduced visibility might be an attempt to prevent the succession debate from gaining too much attention.
The NIS reported that following closer military ties with Russia, North Korean military officials have been actively visiting Russia. This could potentially facilitate the transfer of advanced Russian technology to North Korea.
Lee stated that with Russia’s assistance, North Korea is improving the guidance systems and precision of its missiles. Progress in drone development is also accelerating, posing a significant security threat. The NIS is intensifying its intelligence activities in response.
However, he added that achieving operational capability for hypersonic missiles, reconnaissance satellites, and destroyers may take considerable time, and progress in underwater weapons development remains slow.
Additionally, there are ongoing indications of the possibility of further troop deployments from North Korea.
Reports suggest that over 10,000 North Korean troops remain stationed along the Russia-Ukraine border, performing security duties. Around 1,000 engineers have been deployed for mine clearance operations. Approximately 5,000 construction troops have also been gradually moving to Russia since September and are expected to be involved in infrastructure restoration in the Kursk region, according to the NIS.
Lee remarked on North Korea’s diplomatic trends, stating that North Korea is focusing on solidifying its relationships with China and Russia, leveraging the favorable strategic environment created by the troop dispatch and Kim’s visit to China. They are also expanding foreign relations with the Global South, primarily developing countries located in the southern hemisphere or low latitudes.