Experts are suggesting that Russia’s vulnerabilities in civilian aviation and liquefied natural gas transport could be used to dissuade Moscow from transferring military technology to North Korea. These sectors, which are highly sensitive to international sanctions, could serve as leverage by signaling that support for Pyongyang would run counter to Russia’s own interests.
In a Wednesday report titled “Possibilities of North Korea-Russia Military Technology Cooperation and Our Countermeasures,” Hong Woo Taek, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA), emphasized the importance of establishing a clear understanding that providing advanced technology to North Korea would harm Russia’s strategic position.
Hong suggested implementing conditional operations for safety exception regulations in civilian aviation and for LNG and maritime logistics. These sectors have been under international scrutiny since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The civilian aviation sector presents a significant pressure point, with two-thirds of Russia’s commercial fleet made in the United States or Europe. This dependence on Western parts and insurance has left the industry vulnerable to international sanctions. Russia’s recent appeal to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) for sanctions relief underscores its sensitivity to these restrictions.
The ICAO currently applies safety exception regulations, allowing insurance coverage for critical components to maintain minimum aviation safety standards. Hong proposes that if Russia is found transferring military technology to North Korea, these exceptions could be revoked through clauses in multilateral agreements and industry contracts.
Another key target is Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 project, which is subject to international sanctions. Since 2024, Russia has struggled with restrictions on LNG transport, insurance, and sales.
Hong recommended a conditional bridge approach, where essential services are provided to Russia only if safety and environmental standards are met. This strategy could involve automatic exclusion clauses for port services, towing, rescue, and refueling, which would be immediately revoked if technology transfers to North Korea are detected.
Hong said that if Russia is confirmed to have transferred critical technology to North Korea, maritime and port services could be withdrawn quickly. He noted that the collapse of this conditional bridge would effectively stop LNG operations, placing significant pressure on Moscow.