A prominent U.S. expert on Korean Peninsula affairs has predicted a 60% likelihood of a meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the first quarter of next year, sparking considerable interest.
Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), shared his insights during an online discussion hosted by CSIS on December 19. He stated that he’d estimate there’s about a 60% chance the two leaders will meet in the first quarter of next year, suggesting a potential revival of high-level U.S.-North Korea talks.
However, Cha tempered expectations, cautioning that even if such a meeting occurs, it’s unlikely to yield significant breakthroughs on critical issues like denuclearization.
He highlighted the potential positive aspects of a summit, noting that given the current geopolitical landscape, a meeting between the two leaders might not be entirely disadvantageous.
Cha emphasized that even a reaffirmation of commitment to the 2018 Singapore Declaration, which outlined efforts for complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, could be considered a meaningful outcome.
In contrast, Sydney Seiler, a senior advisor at CSIS who also participated in the discussion, offered a dissenting view. Seiler argued that Russia has extended a lifeline to North Korea, providing economic and military stability. Consequently, from Pyongyang’s perspective, the U.S. is no longer an attractive dialogue partner.
Seiler suggested that North Korea likely sees more benefit in avoiding dialogue with the U.S. at present. He also noted that both the U.S. and South Korea currently lack effective leverage to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table.
During his first term, President Trump held three historic meetings with Kim: in Singapore in 2018, and in Hanoi and Panmunjom in 2019. The Singapore Declaration was initially viewed as a cornerstone for U.S.-North Korea dialogue, but denuclearization talks stalled following the inconclusive Hanoi summit.
During his recent visit to South Korea in October, President Trump expressed interest in meeting with Kim, but North Korea did not respond favorably to the overture.