Experts propose that if U.S.-North Korea talks materialize in the first half of next year and the U.S. considers easing sanctions on North Korea, beginning with the relaxation of U.S. unilateral sanctions based on executive orders could positively impact inter-Korean relations. This suggestion stems from the belief that North Korea likely remains interested in sanctions relief or removal.
A report titled, A Gradual Strategy for Easing Sanctions on North Korea for the Complete Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, published on Wednesday by Jin Ui-rim, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA), indicates that international sanctions against North Korea were truly effective only until United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolution 2270 was adopted in 2016, following North Korea’s fourth nuclear test.
However, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, North Korea has aligned closely with Russia and recently improved its relations with China. Consequently, China and Russia no longer participate in UN-level sanctions against North Korea, clearly demonstrating the limitations of these sanctions.
Despite UN-level sanctions becoming somewhat ineffective, researcher Jin analyzed that from North Korea’s perspective, comprehensive sanctions relief remains an attractive option. To achieve sustainable economic development and stability, North Korea must normalize relations with other countries that adhere to UN sanctions. This is particularly relevant as Donald Trump administration recently announced unilateral sanctions against vessels involved in North Korean exports and individuals linked to cyber crimes, continuing to use sanctions as leverage for U.S.-North Korea dialogue.
Jin suggested that one potential approach for resuming U.S.-North Korea negotiations could involve using the easing of some U.S. unilateral sanctions as a starting point. He proposed initiating partial sanctions relief in the financial and foreign exchange sectors through a presidential executive order, followed by a gradual easing of unilateral sanctions from various countries. This would lead to North Korea’s declaration of its denuclearization intentions and compliance with procedures, ultimately resulting in the lifting of UN Security Council sanctions, followed by the removal of each country’s unilateral sanctions. Jin believes this method could be effective due to the broad discretion the U.S. president has in easing sanctions based on executive orders.
Furthermore, Jin advised that for the South Korean government to assert its presence in this context, it should focus its diplomatic efforts on becoming a mediator for sanctions relief when creating conditions for dialogue between North Korea and the U.S.
Jin emphasized that easing sanctions at the UN Security Council level must be preceded by a phased lifting of U.S. unilateral sanctions to be effective. He added that at this stage, it must rigorously enforce existing sanctions while signaling that easing or lifting sanctions is possible if specific conditions are met.
