President Donald Trump, who was set to visit China in about two weeks, has expressed his desire to postpone the trip due to the ongoing Middle East crisis. This development has disrupted the South Korean government’s hopes for a resumption of U.S.-North Korea dialogue on Tuesday.
Even if the U.S.-China summit takes place a month later as Trump wishes, analysts predict that he will not actively engage in U.S.-North Korea dialogue for the foreseeable future, given his current focus on the Middle East situation.
U.S. Faces Challenges in Middle East Response; Some Analysts Suggest It Could Boost Negotiating Power with China
On Monday, Trump addressed reporters at the White House regarding the U.S.-China summit, stating that he wants to visit China, but he needs to remain in the U.S. due to military operations against Iran. He added that he’s requested a postponement of about a month from the Chinese side. However, he did not provide specific details about China’s response or whether a new date for the summit has been set.
Initially, Trump had planned to stay in Beijing from March 31 to April 2 to meet with President Xi Jinping and discuss various issues, ranging from tariffs to Taiwan.
However, as the conflict with Iran continues and Iran implements its strategy of blocking the Strait of Hormuz—a major concern for the U.S.—Trump appears to have concluded that leaving Washington at this time would be inappropriate.
Some analysts suggest that Trump may be using the summit to pressure China into deploying troops to the Strait of Hormuz.
In an interview with the Financial Times on March 15, Trump stated that China needs to assist the U.S. with operations to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. He wants to know China’s decision before the summit. He had previously bolstered his negotiating position by abruptly canceling the Singapore Summit with Kim Jong Un just two weeks before it was scheduled in May 2018.
South Korean Government’s April North Korea Strategy Faces Setbacks; Prospects for Dialogue with North Korea Grow More Distant
Regardless of Trump’s true intentions, this postponement request confirms that U.S.-North Korea dialogue is not currently his top priority. Consequently, the South Korean government’s hopes for April U.S.-North Korea talks have lost momentum.
Last October, Trump visited South Korea during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, expressing his desire to meet with Kim. After receiving no response from North Korea, he indicated he would return in April of the following year.
The South Korean government interpreted Trump’s comments as a strong willingness to engage in dialogue with North Korea and has been working to create a turning point in April. The ideal scenario envisioned by the government involved China facilitating a meeting between Trump and Kim.
Recently, North Korea and China resumed passenger train services for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Prime Minister Kim Min-seok, who visited the U.S., highlighted Trump’s willingness for dialogue with North Korea, bringing renewed attention to this plan.
On March 13, Prime Minister Kim Min-seok met with Trump at the White House and discussed North Korean issues for about 20 minutes. Minister Kim reported that Trump expressed curiosity about whether Chairman Kim wanted to engage in dialogue with the U.S. or him, indicating continued interest in a U.S.-North Korea summit.
In response, Kim stated that he shared some thoughts with Trump about North Korea’s current situation, whether they want to talk with him, and how to advance relations. Trump reportedly responded positively and gave instructions to a nearby aide.
Unification Minister Chung Dong-young appeared encouraged, stating during a press briefing the previous day that this reaffirms Trump’s high interest in U.S.-North Korea dialogue. He urged North Korea not to miss this opportunity, emphasizing the need to keep the dialogue alive. However, the situation seems to be growing more complex.
Some critics argue that the South Korean government has been overly optimistic about the prospects for April U.S.-North Korea talks.
Professor Kim Jong of the University of North Korean Studies pointed out that currently, U.S.-North Korea dialogue is not among Trump’s priorities. He has postponed the scheduled U.S.-China summit because resolving the Iran situation is more urgent for him.
He further advised that if the government reacts to every statement made by Trump, it may appear overly eager. It needs to take a longer-term view of U.S.-North Korea and inter-Korean dialogue.
