President Donald Trump’s first year in his second term has been characterized by hardline immigration policies, tariff-focused economic strategies, and a Western Hemisphere-centric expansionism. Analysts argue that these approaches are in clear conflict with the rules-based international order that the U.S. has championed since World War II. Consequently, on Friday, experts proposed that South Korea should recalibrate its diplomatic and security strategies, recognizing a fundamentally altered U.S., while simultaneously expanding its strategic autonomy and diplomatic flexibility.
In a report titled, Evaluating Trump’s First Year: A Clear Prelude to Destiny, Oh Il-seok, a researcher at the National Security Strategy Institute, defined the first year of Trump’s second term as a structural turning point in U.S. foreign and security policy. The report asserts that the Trump administration’s policies are pivoting towards prioritizing the settlement and stability of white workers in America over maintaining the rules-based international order.
Oh drew parallels between Trump’s policy direction and the governance style of former President Andrew Jackson (1829-1837), who maintained slavery and forcibly relocated Native Americans through the Indian Removal Act. He noted that the strict immigration policies and fiscal pressures through tariffs are extensions of Jackson’s policy approach.
Notably, the concept of Manifest Destiny, invoked in Trump’s inaugural address, serves as the ideological foundation for this policy shift. Oh posits that, guided by Manifest Destiny, the U.S. appears to be pursuing a new form of imperialism centered on the Western Hemisphere.
In light of these changes, Oh emphasized that South Korea must reassess its perception of the U.S., recognizing that today’s America differs significantly from the nation South Korea has known in the past. With the settlement and stability of white workers becoming a national priority, he argued that South Korea should actively highlight how its investments in semiconductors, batteries, and shipbuilding contribute to these American goals.
Concurrently, enhancing strategic autonomy in security areas, including the transfer of wartime operational control, was identified as a key objective. Oh stressed the need to structurally reduce dependence on the U.S. and broaden options in foreign and security policy.
The report also underscored the importance of expanding diplomatic flexibility, moving beyond the existing framework that relies heavily on U.S. security guarantees. Oh advocates for diversifying diplomatic horizons to include China, Russia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. He recommends developing a comprehensive diplomatic strategy that combines cooperation in technology, energy, and defense industries with cultural diplomacy.
Oh pointed out that Jackson’s policies ironically contributed to one of the worst economic downturns in U.S. history, the Panic of 1837. He cautioned that Trump’s tariffs and fiscal policies might similarly lead to an economic recession in the U.S., urging the South Korean government to conduct a thorough review of its diplomatic and security policies in preparation for potential economic turbulence.