Concerns have emerged on Wednesday about potential changes to the schedule for a summit between the U.S. and China. This follows the U.S. attempt to replace the regime in Venezuela, a key Chinese ally, and its consideration of full-scale war with Iran, prompting an uneasy response from Beijing.
Experts suggest that while the summit is unlikely to be canceled outright, the two leaders may face uncomfortable tensions over the Middle East situation or reaffirm their differences on various critical issues, potentially resulting in an unproductive meeting.
President Donald Trump is set to visit China from March 31 to April 2. This will be the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders in about six months, following their bilateral talks at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju last October. It’s also significant as it marks the first visit by a sitting U.S. president to China since Trump’s initial trip in November 2017, nearly eight and a half years ago.
The summit is expected to cover a wide range of topics, including China’s imports of U.S. soybeans, mutual tariffs, fentanyl tariffs, and the Taiwan issue. It has garnered attention as the first high-level face-to-face discussion between the two countries since the U.S. Supreme Court ruled Trump’s tariff policy illegal. Some analysts suggest this could give China an advantage in the ongoing trade dispute.
However, the U.S.-China summit’s certainty has been called into question following the large-scale military operations launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran on February 28.
After the U.S. ousted Venezuela’s president and declared full-scale war following the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, tensions may escalate with China, which has been critical of U.S. intervention in international affairs.
For now, both sides appear to be proceeding with practical preparations for the summit as planned. This may reflect a mutual understanding that the complex Middle East situation, involving both Chinese and U.S. interests, cannot be easily addressed as an immediate bilateral issue.
While China has condemned the U.S. airstrikes on Iran, it has refrained from mentioning any military response, suggesting an effort to manage its level of opposition.
On Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with his counterparts from Iran, France, and Oman, urging an immediate halt to U.S. and Israeli military operations. However, his statements largely reiterated existing principled positions rather than indicating substantial support for Iran, notably avoiding the term condemnation, which represents the strongest diplomatic criticism.
Analysts believe that both the U.S. and China have incentives to proceed with the summit and are unlikely to cancel it outright.
There are speculations that China might leverage its discomfort over the Iran situation to pressure the U.S. on the Taiwan issue or to extract more concessions on economic and trade matters.
Given that the U.S.-Iran confrontation is likely to persist at least until the end of this month, some experts believe the Taiwan issue may emerge as a more significant factor than the Middle East situation during the upcoming U.S.-China talks.
Professor Min Jeong-hoon from the National Diplomatic Academy predicts that China will likely offer concessions on rare earth controls and increased imports of soybeans and energy to gain leverage, while emphasizing the Taiwan issue. The U.S., in turn, will likely maintain its firm stance on Taiwan, potentially leading to a stalemate in discussions between the two sides.