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Negotiating with a Corpse: Why the World is Whispering to the Ghost of Tehran

PoliticsNegotiating with a Corpse: Why the World is Whispering to the Ghost of Tehran

As U.S. President Donald Trump signals a shift toward a more hands-off stance on the Strait of Hormuz, countries across Europe and Asia are moving to explore multilateral solutions, while Iran advances measures that could further complicate the situation.

In a national address at the White House on April 1, Trump highlighted what he described as the success of U.S. military operations against Iran, calling them “swift, decisive and overwhelming,” and said key strategic objectives were nearing completion.

His repeated remarks that the United States could withdraw “within two to three weeks” have been interpreted as an effort to limit the political and economic burden of a prolonged conflict.

Rising oil prices and economic uncertainty have increased domestic pressure on Trump. In his address, he characterized higher oil prices as a “short-term” issue and emphasized U.S. energy production capacity, arguing that the broader economic impact would remain limited.

Trump also made clear the United States’ evolving stance on the Strait of Hormuz, saying the country imports little oil through the route — a signal that Washington may no longer view securing the strait as a global public responsibility.

This has led to analysis that the United States is increasingly shifting the burden of maintaining the waterway to major oil-importing nations.

Europe, Asia Move Toward Multilateral Coordination

Against this backdrop, European and Asian countries have begun coordinating through diplomatic and military channels within multilateral frameworks.

On April 2, a virtual meeting of foreign ministers led by the United Kingdom was held to discuss keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. The meeting included more than 40 countries, including South Korea, France, Germany, Japan, India, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates.

U.K. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said all available diplomatic and economic tools would be used to ensure the strait remains open.

Participants shared that around 2,000 vessels and more than 20,000 crew members are currently stranded due to Iran’s restrictions. Discussions also covered coordinated responses to restore freedom of navigation and ensure maritime safety.

Separately, the United Kingdom plans to convene a meeting of military strategists to address specific measures, including clearing naval mines and rescuing stranded vessels.

Earlier, on March 26, South Korea joined a virtual meeting of military leaders from 35 countries led by France, focusing on post-conflict reopening and stable management of the strait rather than ongoing U.S. military operations.

With diplomatic and military channels led by the United Kingdom and France gaining momentum, countries are proactively discussing long-term management of the strait in anticipation of a post-conflict environment.

Some analysts suggest that multilateral efforts excluding the United States could eventually lead to direct negotiations with Iran, although such outcomes remain uncertain.

Iran Moves to Reshape Strait Rules

At the same time, Iran appears to be leveraging its strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz by considering new protocols governing passage.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, said in an interview with Russia’s Sputnik on April 2 that Iran is working with Oman to establish new transit protocols for the strait, adding that coordination with coastal states would be required going forward.

He also said existing rules should not be expected to remain in place, signaling potential changes to long-standing international norms such as the right of innocent passage.

Reports indicate that Iran is also considering imposing transit fees. Bloomberg reported on April 1 that the country is exploring a plan to charge about $1 per barrel for tanker passage, with payments potentially made in Chinese yuan or stablecoins.

The use of yuan and digital assets instead of the U.S. dollar is seen as an effort to bypass sanctions while strengthening ties with China.

Iranian authorities are also reportedly reviewing measures requiring shipping operators to submit vessel and cargo information through intermediaries linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with possible variations in conditions depending on the country of origin.

Iran’s parliamentary national security committee approved a related management plan on March 30, reflecting this direction.

Despite ongoing multilateral discussions among European and Asian nations, analysts say a clear resolution remains difficult as the United States distances itself while Iran tightens control.

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