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Will Crypto Be the Deciding Factor in the 2024 Presidential Election?

PoliticsWill Crypto Be the Deciding Factor in the 2024 Presidential Election?

In the run-up to this year’s election, the presidential candidates are battling for the hearts and minds of the cryptocurrency industry.

Recently, Republican candidate Donald Trump has been showing a more crypto-friendly stance than before, while President Joe Biden, who has been somewhat conservative, is also making changes. According to the cryptocurrency industry on June 27, Trump actively criticized the Biden administration’s cryptocurrency policies and courted the industry.

Expected to face Biden in the upcoming November elections, Trump started fundraising for his campaign using cryptocurrency donations, signaling a differentiation strategy from the current administration.

At a rally in Racine, Wisconsin on June 18, Trump declared, “I will end the Biden administration’s war on cryptocurrency.” This commitment to end the conflict is likened to a war with the cryptocurrency industry centered around the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the current U.S. government.

He stated, “Our goal is to ensure that the future of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin unfolds in the U.S.,” warning, “If the U.S. doesn’t step up, other countries will seize the opportunity.” He also emphasized that “the cryptocurrency strategy will create opportunities for the younger generation.”

On top of adding cryptocurrency as a payment method for donations, Trump has recently been openly friendly towards cryptocurrency, hiring an advisor who advocates for a Bitcoin reserve plan for the U.S. and showing a positive view of the cryptocurrency mining industry.

In response, Biden sought changes to counter Trump’s moves. For starters, the Biden campaign is currently considering allowing cryptocurrency for donations.

He also reappointed Carol House, a former White House cryptocurrency advisor with a relatively positive stance on cryptocurrency.

Several people who support Trump within the industry have also opposed the movement to regulate the cryptocurrency industry led by the SEC under the Biden administration.

Prominent examples include Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Investment, and the Winklevoss twins, co-founders of Gemini. In an interview with CryptoSlate, Wood stated, “I plan to vote for former Trump in the upcoming November U.S. elections,” calling Trump “the best choice for the U.S. economy.”

On June 21, the Winklevoss twins publicly supported him by announcing a donation of $2 million in Bitcoin to Trump’s campaign.

In addition to the support from industry figures, analysis reports reflect the sentiment of the cryptocurrency industry, which is currently leaning toward the Republicans.

On June 24, Wall Street investment bank Bernstein released a report predicting that clarity on cryptocurrency regulation would improve if the Republicans win the U.S. elections.

They stated, “Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been weak due to the continued outflow of Bitcoin ETFs,” adding, “However, in the run-up to the U.S. Presidential Election in November, Trump’s camp has already clearly become a supporter of cryptocurrency.”

They added, “If the Republicans win the presidential and congressional elections, there will be an improvement in the clarity of cryptocurrency regulation,” and “The narrative on use cases for blockchain could also change positively.”

Nevertheless, Biden is expected to emphasize the results achieved under his administration, including the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETF 19b-4 (formal review request).

Moreover, there are signs of a more crypto-friendly stance within the Democratic Party that supports him. Notably, a resolution to abolish the accounting guidelines (SAB 121) on the obligation of financial companies to custody cryptocurrency has passed both the Senate and the House.

Meanwhile, in a recent survey by Grayscale, conducted from April 30 to May 2 at the request of global polling firm Harris Poll, 47% of U.S. voters responded that they plan to add cryptocurrency to their investment portfolios. This suggests that cryptocurrency sentiment could be a key factor in the upcoming U.S. elections. The survey targeted voters in next year’s U.S. elections.

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