Leading global scholars have refuted claims by tech giants about the imminent arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) this year. They predict that 2024 will be a year of evaluation, shifting from blind faith in AI to a focus on verifying its practical utility.
According to industry sources on Tuesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in January that AI smarter than humans could emerge by year’s end.
Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, bolstered this optimistic outlook, asserting that AI would replace most software engineering tasks within 6 to 12 months.
Both executives projected the possible emergence of AGI within the year. AGI refers to a versatile AI capable of learning and making comprehensive judgments across various situations, much like humans, rather than being limited to specific tasks.
However, prominent scholars hold a different view. Researchers at Stanford University’s Human-Centered AI Institute (HAI) recently dismissed the notion that AGI would appear this year in their “2026 AI Outlook” report.
James Landay, co-director of HAI, said there will be no emergence of artificial general intelligence this year. He added that he expects a wave of AI projects to fail to demonstrate meaningful productivity gains in industrial settings.
Landay further predicted that nations would prioritize establishing their own data centers and large language models (LLMs) to counter the technological monopolies of specific companies, making AI sovereignty a major topic this year.
Analysts suggest that companies have begun to abandon vague fantasies about AI and are entering a phase of rigorously assessing return on investment.
Julian Nyarko, a law professor at Stanford, emphasized that companies will no longer simply ask whether AI can write, but will instead demand proof of tangible efficiency gains.
Angèle Christin, a communications professor, added that while the AI bubble may not burst right away, the limits of what the technology can and cannot do will become increasingly clear.
Instead of vaguely speculating about AI’s impact on the economy, experts suggest quantifying its ripple effects using accumulated data.
Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the Digital Economy Lab, predicted that this year, the unproductive debates over AI’s economic impact will give way to more precise evaluations grounded in real data.
He forecasted that a real-time AI Economic Dashboard tracking where AI enhances productivity and replaces jobs will become a key indicator for corporate management and government policy.