North Korea has voiced its position on the first U.S.-South Korea joint military exercise under the Lee Jae-myung administration. On Monday, statements suggesting potential provocations in response to the joint drills raised concerns about a possible escalation of tensions between the two Koreas during the exercise period.
North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang-chol declared in a statement published in the ruling party’s official newspaper Rodong Sinmun that their armed forces will maintain a thorough and resolute readiness posture in preparation for the U.S.-South Korea war games.
He asserted that military demonstrations of force against the North Korea would inevitably backfire, creating a less secure environment for the U.S. and South Korea. No emphasized that responding to military provocations and defending national security and regional peace is the paramount duty of the North Korea’s armed forces.
Given North Korea’s characterization of the joint exercise as a preemptive war drill, analysts speculate that Pyongyang may be gearing up for retaliatory military actions during the exercise period.
North Korea’s interpretation of the adjustment to the joint exercise is crucial, with the initial response level being a key indicator.
On August 7, U.S. and South Korean officials announced that this year’s second half of the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise will occur from August 18 to 28. They noted that over 20 of the planned 40 field training exercises (FTXs) have been rescheduled for September. This modification is seen as an attempt by the South Korean government to scale back the joint exercise as part of its conciliatory approach toward North Korea.
Minister No refrained from offering any evaluation or stance on this adjustment by the U.S. and South Korea in his statement, indicating that North Korea is carefully monitoring developments in the South.
Historically, during periods of strained inter-Korean relations, North Korea has used joint exercises as an opportunity for high-intensity provocations, showcasing its military capabilities through launches of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads and cruise missiles.
However, after declaring the two Koreas as separate states, North Korea appeared to disregard the joint exercises, adopting a strategy of neglect and indifference toward the South.
Last year, on the eve of the UFS (August 18), North Korea condemned the exercise through a statement from its Ministry of Foreign Affair’s Institute for American Studies. Just before the exercise concluded (August 28), state media reported that Kim Jong Un, the General Secretary of the Workers’ Party, observed a test firing of a new 240mm (about 9.4 inches) multiple rocket launcher. The 240mm (about 9.4 inches) rocket firing is classified as a low-intensity provocation.
This year, North Korea has demonstrated increased interest by responding about a week before the exercise begins. South Korean officials assessed that Minister No’s statement focused on explaining their position rather than on criticism, ridicule, or high-intensity threats, suggesting that North Korea’s denunciations and threats are not particularly severe at this point.
However, some analysts propose that North Korea may be testing the U.S. and South Korea to further reduce the intensity of the joint exercise. If the allies do not show additional signs of adjustment by August 18, Pyongyang could respond with military provocations, potentially worsening the situation.
Tension-Reducing Measures Must be Taken During Drills to Continue Improving Inter-Korean Relations
This year, North Korea has consistently shown a measured response to the Lee administration’s conciliatory policies. While displaying selective responses to various issues, the cessation of mutual loudspeaker broadcasts in border areas has clearly contributed to easing tensions.
Consequently, some suggest that to demonstrate the sincerity of its intentions to improve and restore inter-Korean relations, the Lee administration should continue its conciliatory measures towards North Korea during the joint exercise period.
Professor Lim Eul-chul from Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies stated that if the U.S. military’s advanced capabilities are deployed and North Korea’s nuclear threat simulations are highlighted, it will be difficult to rule out high-intensity responses using military cooperation with Russia or the potential emergence of new weapons. He added that South Korea should also consider the possibility of testing new strategic and tactical weapons as part of completing their five-year plan for strengthening national defense.
Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, noted that North Korea’s silence on the adjustments to the U.S.-South Korea field training exercises implies an indirect message that they are evaluating these actions, emphasizing the need for continued proactive measures.
Some analysts argue that North Korea’s recent mobilization of troops for economic sectors indicates a need to conclude the five-year economic development plan established in 2021. With the potential for former President Donald Trump to seek re-election, external considerations have increased, potentially leading to a lower likelihood of high-intensity provocations.
Rodong Sinmun emphasized the importance of successfully completing the five-year plan in a special article last month, stating that the remaining period is as crucial as the past four years and six months, highlighting the nationwide focus on achieving economic results by the end of this year.