On Wednesday, analysts emphasized the importance of closely monitoring North Korea’s evolving military strategy, which is being shaped by its careful analysis of recent international conflicts.
In a report titled Prospects for the Evolution of North Korea’s Modern Warfare Concept Based on Recent International Conflicts, Kim Bo-mi, a deputy researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy, argued that recent global disputes are redefining modern warfare in an era of heightened nuclear threats. These changes, she asserts, have significant implications for North Korea’s military doctrine.
Kim highlighted several regional conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war, the military tensions between India and Pakistan, and the strikes by Israel and the U.S. on Iranian nuclear facilities. She identified key lessons from these conflicts: nuclear weapons remain crucial for strategic deterrence; modernizing conventional forces is essential, independent of nuclear capabilities; there is a preference for quick, decisive victories over prolonged engagements; drone-centered asymmetric warfare has proven tactically valuable; and the U.S. maintains its critical role as a conflict mediator.
These insights are highly relevant to North Korea, Kim explained. The regime likely views ongoing nuclear capability development and securing an unambiguous status as a nuclear power as top priorities. Analysts predict North Korea will institutionalize its nuclear power identity, learning from Iran’s lack of operational nuclear forces.
There is also growing recognition within North Korea of the need to balance nuclear and conventional capabilities through force modernization, shifting from its previous nuclear-centric focus. Kim noted that the Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates that even nuclear powers primarily rely on conventional forces to initiate and conduct warfare. She forecasts that North Korea will seek to transform its military for modern combat through long-term cooperation with Russia.
Given U.S. preferences for diplomatic solutions over military action due to nuclear escalation risks, North Korea might develop strategies involving conventional attacks on South Korea, followed by a pivot to negotiations based on U.S. intervention. This approach could allow North Korea to repeatedly engage in controlled limited conflicts, potentially destabilizing the Korean Peninsula.
Kim highlighted North Korea’s increased use of drones in military exercises, stating that intelligence suggests North Korea is collaborating with Russia to develop production capabilities for Garpiya and Geran series drones. She further noted that drone development is likely to be a cornerstone of their next five-year defense plan.
In July 2023, North Korea showcased new unmanned aircraft at the Armed Equipment Exhibition-2023, including the Saetbyeol-4 reconnaissance drone and the Saetbyeol-9 attack drone. A year later, in August 2024, Kim Jong Un inspected a new suicide drone.
Kim emphasized that military modernization is central to North Korea’s strategic shift. She noted that Kim Jong Un likely recognizes the limitations of nuclear weapons in localized or unconventional conflicts, despite their deterrent value in large-scale confrontations.
She concluded that the People’s Army modernization reflects Kim Jong Un’s adaptive strategy to gain battlefield superiority, beyond mere weapons upgrades. She anticipates that the 9th Workers’ Party Congress in 2026 will unveil a new defense plan incorporating modern warfare concepts that enhance operational capabilities and battlefield control, expanding beyond nuclear deterrence.