Kim Jong Un, the General Secretary of North Korea’s Workers’ Party, stood alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 80th anniversary of China’s Victory Day. U.S. security experts interpret this as North Korea effectively gaining recognition as a nuclear power. They argue that this development diminishes the incentive for dialogue with the U.S. and South Korea, both of which refuse to acknowledge this status.
Sydney Seiler, who served as the U.S. State Department’s special envoy for North Korea during the Barack Obama administration, shared his insights on a podcast hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. on Thursday. He assessed that Kim’s presence alongside Putin and Xi at the September 3 parade underscored his role as the leader of a nuclear-armed nation.
Seiler suggested that North Korea’s summit attempts with China and the U.S. in 2018 and 2019 were part of a strategy to explore diplomatic possibilities and gauge international sentiment as a nuclear power, without committing to denuclearization.
He stated that however, Kim’s efforts ultimately failed, culminating in the breakdown of the 2019 U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi. Further noting that no negotiating partner was willing to accept North Korea as a nuclear power, which had been Kim’s ultimate goal.
Seiler identified the strengthening of relations with Russia as a crucial turning point in North Korea’s pursuit of recognition as a nuclear power.
He noted that the evolving relationship between North Korea and Russia over the past two years has advanced North Korea’s objectives beyond mere bilateral ties. Further noting that Kim’s prominent role in the Victory Day parade, particularly his grand entrance, positioned him as a significant player on the global stage among authoritarian leaders.
Seiler explained that Xi didn’t need to explicitly declare China’s recognition of North Korea as a nuclear power. Similarly, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi wasn’t required to echo Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statement about understanding and respecting North Korea’s position. Simply inviting Kim and assigning him such a prominent role conveyed the same message.
He argued that Kim is now focused on ensuring North Korea’s survival by maintaining relationships with countries that defy sanctions, while simultaneously seeking recognition as a nuclear power in a more favorable global context. Furthrt, this development is likely to cause considerable concern for China regarding North Korea’s deepening ties with Russia.
Seiler observed that while Xi’s invitation to Kim may signal a desire for increased dialogue, and Kim might be interested in exploring potential benefits from China, he doesn’t foresee a major breakthrough in North Korea–China relations. The inherent tensions and challenges among authoritarian leaders persist.
Regarding the possibility of a U.S.-North Korea summit, Seiler commented that although both President Donald Trump and President Lee Jae-myung have shown openness to diplomacy, the likelihood of a summit materializing remains low given Kim’s reluctance to engage.
He summed up the key message from the events on China’s Victory Day by stating that North Korea is essentially saying that they’ve found new allies and moved to a different neighborhood. Further noting that no matter how much you knock, they won’t answer the door.
Seiler also serves as a senior advisor at CSIS.
He noted that Kim’s interactions with leaders from over 20 countries during China’s Victory Day event were part of a long-term strategy to solidify North Korea’s status as a nuclear power.
Regarding the goal of North Korean denuclearization, Seiler reflected on the Obama administration’s efforts to leverage China’s influence over North Korea through backchannel communications. However, he concluded that these efforts ultimately proved ineffective, remarking that China currently wields little influence over North Korea’s nuclear program.
