On January 10, North Korea alleged that South Korean drones violated its airspace on January 4 and last September, issuing a stern warning of consequences. Analysts suggest this statement, coming on the heels of a recent South Korea-China summit where Seoul requested Beijing’s peace mediation, aims to expose the perceived duplicity of the South Korean government and decisively block any potential for diplomatic thaw.
The regime’s official mouthpiece, Rodong Sinmun, published a statement from a Korean People’s Army General Staff spokesperson, declaring that the rogue state of South Korea, which stunned the world with its drone incursion over Pyongyang in October 2024, has once again committed a grave violation of the sovereignty by dispatching drones into the airspace at the onset of the new year.
The newspaper released photos of the downed drones’ wreckage, including images of onboard surveillance equipment and flight data. Their analysis claims that on January 4, a drone launched from Ganghwa County, Incheon, covered 156 kilometers (about 97 miles) over 3 hours and 10 minutes, traversing Kaesong, parts of North Hwanghae Province, and reaching Paju’s Jeokseong area while capturing imagery of strategic targets.
The spokesperson added that the drone’s recording device contained two video clips of North Korean territory, lasting 6 minutes and 59 seconds, and 6 minutes and 58 seconds, captured before its downing.
The report also detailed an incident from September 27 last year, alleging that a South Korean drone launched from Paju at 11:15 a.m. penetrated North Korean airspace over Pyongsan County before being electronically engaged by the Korean People’s Army’s (KPA) 2nd Corps and crashing in a Kaesong rice field at 2:25 p.m.
North Korea claims this drone flew 167 kilometers (about 104 miles) at 300 meters altitude and 50 km/h (about 31 mph) for 3 hours and 20 minutes, recording 5 hours and 47 minutes of footage over North Korean territory.
The spokesperson’s statement took a combative tone, asserting that while South Korea pays lip service to creating even a pinhole for communication, their continued provocations only reinforce the view of them as the most hostile enemy. Should they dare to challenge, it will undoubtedly crush them.
Drawing a parallel to the Ukraine conflict, the statement emphasized that the international community must recognize the true source of tensions and conflict risk on the Korean Peninsula.
Experts note the timing of North Korea’s data release, combining recent and past incidents, as significant. While time was needed to analyze the September and January 4 events, this strategic move likely reflects Pyongyang’s unease about the outcome of the recent South Korea-China summit.
Professor Lim Eul-chul of Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies suggests that this appears to be a calculated move to undermine President Lee Jae Myung’s peace mediation narrative. They’re attempting to paint South Korea as a hypocritical regime that preaches peace publicly while conducting covert reconnaissance.
Lim added that it seems they’ve been stockpiling past data to derail the current administration’s reconciliation efforts, planning to release it at the most damaging moment. This could be a sophisticated attempt to frame the government as duplicitous and deceitful at this critical juncture.
The professor also highlighted that North Korea’s emphasis on the drone’s flight path through areas of high South Korean military concentration preemptively counters any civilian action claims while building justification for potential future military retaliation.
Notably, on October 11, 2024, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry alleged via Korean Central News Agency that South Korean drones had entered Pyongyang’s airspace on October 3, 9, and 10, dropping anti-regime leaflets. The following day, Rodong Sinmun published images of drone wreckage, leaflets, and flight paths for public consumption.
While initial speculation pointed to civilian activists, subsequent investigations confirmed South Korean military involvement.
The fact that this latest statement came from the KPA General Staff, rather than the Foreign Ministry or Kim Yo-jong, suggests it may be a prelude to action. Since redefining inter-Korean relations as between hostile states, Pyongyang has increasingly relied on Defense Ministry, Foreign Ministry, and Kim Yo-jong statements for key messaging.
The mention of Ukraine in the statement likely aims to stoke war fears and hostility among North Korean citizens, bolstering regime cohesion.
Kim Jong Un has kicked off the new year by emphasizing the North Korea-Russia blood alliance, consoling families of troops deployed to Russia and publicizing memorial construction for fallen soldiers, underscoring military might, internal unity, and diplomatic leverage.
However, North Korea’s drone claims may be fabricated. South Korea’s Defense Ministry stated that it has confirmed that the military did not operate any drones on the dates North Korea alleges.
Given that the current South Korean administration and ruling party suspect the previous Yoon Suk Yeol government of sending drones to Pyongyang to provoke a North Korean attack and justify martial law, Seoul is likely exercising extreme caution regarding drone operations.
Shin Jong-woo, Secretary-General of the Korea Defense Security Forum, noted that the drone images released by North Korea show models assembled from commercially available parts, making their origin difficult to verify conclusively.