Recent studies show artificial intelligence (AI) is replacing human programmers in coding tasks faster than anticipated. In the U.S. last year, AI-generated code accounted for nearly 30% of new code written.
On Friday, researchers from Utrecht University in the Netherlands, including Professor Simone D’Anioti, published their findings in the journal Science. Their paper, titled, Who is Writing Code with AI? The Global Spread of Generative AI and Its Impact, offers insights into this trend.
The team analyzed about 30 million Python codes on GitHub, a popular code-sharing platform. These codes were created by 160,000 developers from six countries: the U.S., Germany, France, China, Russia, and India.
The analysis revealed a rapid increase in AI-generated code blocks. In the U.S., the percentage skyrocketed from 5% in 2022 to 29% in 2023, leading the six countries studied. Germany, France, and India followed closely behind.
However, significant variations exist between countries. For instance, AI-generated code in China only reached 12% last year.
Focusing on the U.S., researchers estimate that generative AI in coding has created annual value ranging from 23 billion USD to 38 billion USD.
The team noted that even conservative estimates show coding productivity increased by about 3.6% due to generative AI from 2022 through the end of 2024. They added that if generative AI’s impact is limited to Python, the productivity value could be between 4 billion USD and 6 billion USD.
The study found that less experienced developers tend to use generative AI more frequently, with no significant gender-based differences.
However, researchers predict AI could widen the skill gap rather than narrow it, as experienced developers also benefit from AI assistance. The productivity gains appear more pronounced among seasoned developers.
Industry experts in the U.S. also suggest that less skilled programmers may face greater challenges.
A report from the Software Policy Research Institute, under the National Information Technology (IT) Industry Promotion Agency (NIPA), indicates a significant decrease in demand for junior developers compared to the 2020-2021 boom. This shift is attributed to the changing skill requirements for developers due to generative AI.
In-depth interviews with seven developers revealed a belief that generative AI could effectively replace many tasks typically handled by junior developers. While some roles remain challenging for AI to replace, such as Apple application distribution, testing, and quality assurance (QA), the landscape could rapidly evolve.
Some experts suggest that generative AI might enable junior developers to quickly take on mid-level responsibilities.
The report concludes that while AI has limitations in fully replacing advanced developer tasks, it could significantly reduce the burden of routine work. This shift may allow experienced developers to focus more on core responsibilities like architectural design and team management.