North Korea has entered a systematic phase of integrating and advancing its nuclear and conventional military capabilities, following its 9th Workers’ Party Congress, according to a recent analysis. This development suggests an increased likelihood of an arms race on the Korean Peninsula, prompting experts to recommend that South Korea refine its deterrence strategy.
Shin Beom-cheol, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, stated in a March 3 report titled, Evaluation of Military Aspects and Implications of North Korea’s 9th Party Congress, that Pyongyang’s military direction set at the congress deepens and systematizes its existing dual strategy of nuclear and conventional forces rather than signaling a new strategic shift.
Shin noted that while the 8th Party Congress five years ago emphasized developing new weapons such as tactical nukes, super-large warheads, hypersonic missiles, and nuclear-powered submarines, the 9th Congress focused on systematizing command and control for effective combat use of nuclear weapons and testing an integrated nuclear crisis response system.
He observed that North Korea’s ongoing weapons testing and displays of power, framed as responsible exercises of war deterrence, suggest future strategic provocations as a means of external messaging. The emphasis on underwater nuclear capabilities and naval nuclear armament aims to enhance nuclear deterrent survivability and strengthen retaliatory capabilities.
Regarding conventional forces, North Korea’s focus on implementing advanced military technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) based unmanned attack systems, electronic warfare capabilities, and counter-satellite assets, reflects adaptation to modern warfare, Shin said. He predicts North Korea will systematically continue enhancing its advanced conventional military capabilities.
Shin warned that North Korea’s approach could intensify tensions in the Korean Peninsula’s security environment. He pointed out that integrating nuclear and conventional forces to boost military effectiveness could trigger an arms race between the two Koreas.
However, he cautioned against responding to every instance of North Korea’s military buildup. Instead, he suggested South Korea should carefully prepare countermeasures while externally conveying messages aimed at reducing tensions.
Shin emphasized the need to maintain readiness, combined defense posture, and extended deterrence. He stressed the importance of maintaining superiority in advanced conventional forces and enhancing intelligence capabilities regarding potential technology transfers between North Korea and Russia. Shin concluded that a structural and institutional reorganization of deterrence strategies, rather than emotional responses, is crucial.