It has been over a week since speculation arose that Chinese President Xi Jinping would visit North Korea this week for a summit with Kim Jong Un, but no related developments have been detected. On Tuesday, there are simultaneous suggestions that the summit may have been canceled or postponed, or that the initial rumors of a visit to North Korea might have been mere unfounded speculation.
The possibility of President Xi’s visit to North Korea surfaced when the U.S. news magazine Time reported on it on May 20, citing anonymous sources. If President Xi meets with Kim after his meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump on May 14 and Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 20, it would represent an unprecedented diplomatic blitz that could immediately impact the geopolitical landscape, which is why the Time report garnered significant attention.
There were also reports that the Blue House and the government had obtained intelligence regarding the possibility of President Xi visiting North Korea. However, the Blue House and the government have not disclosed specific details to the media, maintaining that they are closely monitoring related developments.
China and North Korea, the parties involved in the rumor, have not clarified their positions regarding President Xi’s potential visit. China is exhibiting its characteristic Neither Confirm Nor Deny (NCND) stance.
On Monday, during a regular press briefing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded to a request for confirmation regarding the Time report by stating that it currently has no information to provide. This response appears to be close to a denial, yet it does not completely refute the report.
Spokesperson Mao added that China and North Korea are socialist friendly neighboring countries, and both parties and nations have maintained a long tradition of friendly exchanges, emphasizing that this aligns with the interests of both countries and contributes to regional peace and stability.
North Korea has not disclosed any position regarding President Xi’s potential visit.
In the past, during President Xi’s visit to North Korea on June 20, 2019, China officially announced the visit three days prior on June 17, 2019. North Korea officially announced the news on September 3 of last year, five days before General Secretary Kim visited Beijing to mark the 80th anniversary of China’s Victory Day (commemorating the victory in the armed struggle against Japan).
Considering past precedents, experts speculate that if President Xi’s visit to North Korea is to take place this week, an announcement should be made imminently.
However, beyond the official statements from both sides, there have been no observable signs of preparations for President Xi’s visit to North Korea — such as satellite imagery indicating activity at North Korean airports or in Pyongyang related to welcoming the Chinese leader, or diplomatic communications with neighboring countries that might suggest an impending trip. This has fueled speculation that discussions regarding an actual visit may not have taken place at all.
There is also the possibility that the summit was postponed due to a mismatch in agendas between China and North Korea.
However, it is suggested that President Xi’s visit to North Korea has not been completely canceled but may have been postponed. It is believed that while discussions for holding the summit took place, the two sides may not have reached an agreement on key agenda items yet.
A government source stated that it’s questionable whether President Xi would visit Pyongyang without getting something in return, adding that North Korea, which is aligning more closely with Russia than China, may not have much to offer President Xi at this time.
North Korea decided to solidify its position as a nuclear power during the 9th Workers’ Party Congress in February and the Supreme People’s Assembly in March this year. The prevailing view is that, from Secretary Kim’s perspective, it would be difficult to extend a warm welcome to President Xi, who is visiting North Korea after discussing North Korea’s denuclearization with President Trump.
However, the Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Workers’ Party, reported on Monday that General Secretary Kim had sent a message of condolence to President Xi regarding the coal mine gas explosion in China’s Shaanxi Province. This suggests that both North Korea and China clearly share a consensus to maintain their relationship at a certain level.
In particular, as President Xi established a competitive coexistence relationship with President Trump during their summit, avoiding extreme confrontation, and aligned with President Putin on opposing North Korea sanctions, the possibility of him acting as a mediator between North Korea and the U.S. seems to have increased more than ever in recent years. This also suggests that conditions have been created for President Xi to be more eager to visit North Korea than North Korea itself in order to expand influence in Northeast Asia.
Additionally, Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, visited North Korea in April, which could be related to coordinating the summit, so the possibility of a surprise visit by President Xi for a North Korea-China summit cannot be completely ruled out.