Analysis suggests that China is rapidly advancing through its nuclear weapons.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported on June 17 that as of January, China had 500 nuclear warheads, an increase of 90 compared to 2023. SIPRI pointed out that 24 of these are likely to have been deployed. This is the first time that China’s nuclear weapons have been detected to be deployed in a high operational readiness posture.
The increase in China’s nuclear warheads over the past year was the highest since the count started in 2005. SIPRI predicts that by 2030 China could have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as the U.S. or Russia.
Hans Kristensen, a Senior Researcher at SIPRI, emphasized, “China is expanding its nuclear weapons faster than any other country.”
According to the Washington Post (WP), senior officials in the Biden administration have warned that if competitors such as Russia and China continue on this path, the U.S. may have to deploy more nuclear weapons. Pranay Vaddi, Senior Advisor for Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation at the National Security Council (NSC), said at an annual event of the Arms Control Association held in Washington in June, “There may come a time within a few years when we have to increase (nuclear weapons) beyond the currently deployed numbers.”
Tong Zhao, a Nuclear Expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, predicted in a WP interview that if the current trend continues, China could increase its nuclear warheads to 700 by 2027 and to 1,000 by the end of 2029.
According to SIPRI, the countries possessing nuclear weapons are the U.S., Russia, the U.K., France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. It also mentioned that the total number of nuclear warheads worldwide has decreased by 391 to 12,121 compared to the same period of 2023.
The total number decreased as the U.S. and Russia dismantled old nuclear warheads, but operational nuclear warheads increased by 9 to 9,585 compared to 2023.
Russia was counted as having 5,580, a decrease of 309, while the U.S. had 5,044, a decrease of 200. The two countries possess 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads.
The countries that increased their nuclear warheads were China, India, and North Korea. North Korea’s number of nuclear warheads was estimated to be 50, 20 more than the same period for 2023.
SIPRI mentioned that China’s increase in nuclear weapons comes amidst various wars around the world, including Ukraine and the Gaza Strip. The report interpreted the war in Ukraine as harming nuclear disarmament talks.
Russia declared a halt to the implementation of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the U.S. last year and embarked on expanding its nuclear weapons. It continues to train with tactical nuclear weapons.
Dr. Wilfred Wan is a researcher in charge of weapons of mass destruction at SIPRI. He expressed concern, saying, “Nuclear weapons have never had such weight in international relations since the Cold War.”