A U.S. expert on Korean Peninsula affairs has assessed that the U.S. has bolstered its deterrence against North Korea through recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
During a webinar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Tuesday, Senior Advisor Sydney Seiler emphasized that President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran demonstrated his willingness to use military force, countering perceptions of isolationism.
Seiler, a prominent North Korea analyst who served on the U.S. National Intelligence Council from 2020 to 2023 and as a senior analyst for U.S. Forces Korea, brings significant expertise to this assessment.
He suggested that the sight of B-2 stealth bombers conducting long-range bombing missions could have a substantial deterrent effect on North Korea, potentially dissuading them from war planning even if it doesn’t immediately bring them back to the negotiating table.
In contrast, Victor Cha, the CSIS Korea Chair, argued that North Korea might view the Iran strikes as validation of its nuclear ambitions. Cha posited that the U.S. may now have to accept a nuclear-armed North Korea as a consequence of its actions against Iran.
However, Cha also speculated that to prevent a similar strike against North Korea, the U.S. might pursue dialogue with North Korea aimed at disrupting cooperation between North Korea, Iran, and Russia, rather than focusing solely on denuclearization.
Cha cautioned that if the U.S. strikes only to delay Iran’s nuclear program instead of destroying it completely, North Korea might conclude it could survive similar attacks. He also acknowledged the possibility of North Korean support for Iran, reminiscent of its past assistance to Syria.
Cha expressed concern over North Korea’s unchecked cooperation with Russia and China’s apparent loss of influence over North Korea, noting that North Korea now operates without the constraints it once faced.
Daniel Shapiro, Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow and former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, pointed out that Iran is well aware of the contrasting outcomes for North Korea and Libya regarding their nuclear programs. He noted that while North Korea’s nuclear arsenal has helped preserve its regime, Libya’s decision to abandon its program left it vulnerable.
Shapiro added that Israel learned a crucial lesson from the U.S. decision not to strike North Korean nuclear facilities in the 1990s, which ultimately allowed North Korea to develop nuclear weapons. This experience, he suggests, has reinforced Israel’s belief in the necessity of preemptive action.