Military analysts predict that despite North Korea’s efforts to modernize both its nuclear and conventional forces since 2023, it will struggle to close the capability gap with South Korea in the near term.
In a report titled, North Korea’s Recent Conventional Military Buildup and Its Impact on East Asian Security, Dr. Cha Du-hyun of the The Asan Institute for Policy Studies noted that while Pyongyang’s military investments in 2021 focused on future warfare technologies like drones and reconnaissance satellites, since 2023 they’ve seen a broader expansion of their defense spending.
Dr. Cha highlighted several key developments, including the launch of North Korea’s first tactical nuclear attack submarine (September 2023), the unveiling of new Cheonma-2 series tanks (March 2024), the public debut of a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (March 2025), and the introduction of two new 5,000-ton Choe Hyon-class destroyers — one of which is named DPRKS Hero Kim Kun-ok (April 2025) — with the second following in May 2025.
However, Dr. Cha expressed skepticism about the operational effectiveness of these new North Korean weapons systems. He noted that the tanks, submarines, and destroyers have not undergone rigorous performance testing, and it remains unclear if they are equipped with all the advanced systems Pyongyang claims.
Specifically, the analyst pointed out that while the Cheonma-2 tanks reportedly feature an active protection system (APS) and guided missile capabilities, their combat effectiveness remains unproven. Similarly, the Choe Hyon-class destroyers appear to be modern vessels with advanced missile and radar systems, but it’s uncertain whether these capabilities were fully integrated at launch.
Dr. Cha emphasized that a critical question is whether North Korea has the financial and technical resources to fully deploy these new conventional weapons. He added that it’s unlikely they’ll be able to offset South Korea’s qualitative military edge within the next one to two years.
Despite these limitations, Dr. Cha assessed that North Korea’s focus on conventional military modernization serves a strategic messaging purpose.
Dr. Cha explained that Kim Jong Un is using these conventional force improvements to signal that North Korea has a credible nuclear deterrent and is prepared to use it. Further noting that by announcing plans for a blue-water navy, the regime is also trying to project power globally and regionally. Ultimately, this conventional buildup is aimed at increasing North Korea’s leverage in the U.S.-China strategic competition and in negotiations with major powers, including Russia, China, and the U.S.