North Korean leader Kim Jong Un observed a hypersonic missile launch, emphasizing the need to bolster nuclear deterrence. He cited recent geopolitical crises as justification for strengthening nuclear capabilities, alluding to the recent ousting of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.
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North Korean state media, including Rodong Sinmun, reported on Monday that Kim had overseen a hypersonic missile launch training session the previous day. Analysts believe North Korea tested the Hwasong-11, a new short-range missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
During the exercise, Kim stated it’s making significant progress in operationalizing the nuclear forces. He stressed the strategic importance of maintaining and expanding a robust nuclear deterrent.
Kim added that it’s not hiding anything. Its actions are clearly aimed at gradually enhancing the nuclear deterrence. Recent geopolitical crises and international events underscore the necessity of this approach.
These remarks are seen as a response to the January 3 ouster of President Maduro, facilitated by President Trump’s military operation Resolute Determination.
North Korea has long maintained friendly ties with Venezuela as part of an anti-U.S. alliance. The swift U.S. operation, which saw elite special forces capture Maduro from his safe house in just over three hours, demonstrated the apparent ease with which the U.S. can topple foreign leaders.
For Kim, this likely represents a significant threat, especially in light of the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities last June. Both actions could be viewed as potential blueprints for operations against North Korea.
Despite Trump’s continued calls for dialogue, recent events have likely deepened Kim’s distrust. There’s a growing perception in Pyongyang that North Korea could become the target of a decapitation strike if U.S. interests shift.
North Korea Expected to Prioritize Nuclear Second-Strike Capability; Hardline Stance Likely at Upcoming Party Congress
Pyongyang has closely observed the situations in Iran and Venezuela, noting both countries’ inability to effectively counter U.S. military actions. This has likely emboldened U.S. confidence in conducting such operations.
In 2023, North Korea launched a conventional submarine capable of firing nuclear missiles. Late last year, it showcased significant progress on a nuclear-powered submarine with extended submerged endurance, announcing plans to arm it with nuclear missiles.
Experts believe North Korea is pursuing a second-strike capability – the ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons after absorbing an initial nuclear attack. This strategy aims to ensure that even if Pyongyang is hit, North Korea could launch nuclear missiles at the U.S. from submarines in the Pacific, deterring any direct military action against the regime.
Simultaneously, North Korea may view the Venezuela situation as an opportunity to justify further nuclear development. The key difference between South America and Northeast Asia is the presence of U.S. adversaries. While Venezuela lacked allies to counter the U.S. operation, any military action against North Korea would likely prompt immediate intervention from China and Russia. Additionally, North Korea could retaliate by launching a massive missile barrage against South Korea.
Given these factors, experts believe North Korea assesses the risk of direct U.S. military action as low. Kim’s recent statements may be a strategy to present a defensive rationale while pursuing practical benefits from the international situation.
In September 2022, North Korea enacted its Nuclear Force Policy Law, codifying its nuclear doctrine and specifying conditions for nuclear weapons use. Since then, Pyongyang has continued to advance its nuclear capabilities, arguing that denuclearization would be illegal and that its arsenal is necessary to counter Western strategic threats.
Analysts predict that the upcoming 9th Party Congress, expected in January or February, is unlikely to show a shift towards a more conciliatory stance. Kim’s recent hostile rhetoric towards South Korea and the U.S., coupled with his comments at the missile launch, suggest North Korea may announce even more aggressive nuclear weapons policies.
Professor Lim Eum-chul of Kyungnam University’s Institute for East Asian Studies commented that the Venezuelan airstrike likely reinforced Kim’s belief that nuclear weapons are non-negotiable. He predicts the new Five-Year Defense Development Plan to be unveiled at the Party Congress will contain the most aggressive military objectives to date.