This week, South Korea and the United States are set to hold a signing ceremony for the 12th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) on defense cost-sharing. The urgency to complete the agreement appears driven by concerns over a potential Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. election.
On Monday, a senior official from South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that the 12th SMA, agreed upon by both nations, received approval in a cabinet meeting on October 29. The official added that established procedures would conduct the signing ceremony privately.
In October, South Korea and the United States finalized the terms of the 12th SMA. Key achievements include reverting the basis for the annual increase from the defense budget growth rate to the consumer price index and reintroducing a 5% cap on annual increases. Both parties agreed to eliminate support for U.S. military overseas asset maintenance, focusing on creating a sustainable agreement with appropriate costs.
It’s worth noting that the SMA could, in theory, be terminated at the discretion of the U.S. President. Unlike in South Korea, where the agreement requires National Assembly ratification and presidential approval, the U.S. classifies it as an administrative agreement that doesn’t need congressional consent.
The push to sign the SMA swiftly is primarily attributed to potential security risks associated with a Trump return to power.
In a recent interview, Trump referred to South Korea as a money machine (a wealthy nation), suggesting he would have demanded an annual defense contribution of $10 billion if he were in office.
This figure is nearly nine times the recently agreed-upon 2026 defense cost-sharing amount of $1.1 billion.
While experts previously considered it unlikely that Trump would overturn the SMA if re-elected, his recent comments have forced Seoul to consider strategies to mitigate the Trump risk seriously.
South Korean officials maintain that they believe they’re in a strong position even if Trump reclaims the White House and pushes for renegotiation.
A high-ranking South Korean Foreign Ministry official noted that while extending negotiations might have enabled a lower annual increase rate, both sides were eager to finalize the deal before the election. The official added that if Trump were to demand renegotiation upon re-election, having the SMA already in effect would provide a strategic advantage.
Foreign Minister Cho Tae Yul echoed this during a recent National Assembly audit. When asked about South Korea’s position on whether Trump would demand an SMA renegotiation, Cho confirmed they held an advantageous stance. He emphasized that future talks would use the concluded 12th round as a baseline.
