President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day delay on military strikes against Iran triggered immediate reactions in global financial markets and South Korean futures markets. The New York Stock Exchange and KOSPI 200 night futures index surged, while the USD-KRW exchange rate and international oil prices plummeted. This trend is expected to lead to a rebound when the KOSPI main market opens on Tuesday morning.
KOSPI night futures soar 7.8%… Exchange Rate Drops From 1,517 KRW (1.01 USD) to 1,480 KRW (0.99 USD) Range
According to financial industry sources on Tuesday, the KOSPI 200 night index futures reached 861.30 as of 11:20 p.m. (Korean time) on Monday, marking a 7.8% increase from 799.25 at 7:46 p.m. (Korean time), indicating a significant surge in the KOSPI futures index.
Earlier, on Monday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had engaged in productive talks with Iran and instructed the Department of Defense to postpone all military strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. This announcement raised hopes for potential peace negotiations.
On March 21, Trump had warned that if Iran did not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, he would strike multiple power plants in Iran, leaving no trace. However, his conciliatory remarks on this day dramatically shifted the atmosphere.
Reuters reported that Trump told reporters he had discussions with Iranian representatives, resulting in key points of agreement. He stated that if negotiations continue productively, it’ll reach an agreement soon, adding that if an agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will open shortly.
Global stock markets also reacted positively to the rapidly changing situation. As of 10:30 p.m. (Korean time) on Monday, the NASDAQ 100 futures index stood at 24,541.25, up 2.7% from 23,894.25 at 8 p.m. (Korean time). Since the NASDAQ futures index directly influences the opening prices of domestic markets the following day, analysts predict that the KOSPI will also rebound upon opening on Tuesday morning.
The previously soaring exchange rate also began to stabilize. In the Seoul foreign exchange market, the USD-KRW exchange rate recorded 1,488.0 KRW (about 0.99 USD) as of 10:50 p.m. (Korean time) on Monday, a drop of 29.3 KRW (about 0.02 USD) from the weekly closing price of 1,517.3 KRW (about 1.01 USD) at 3:30 p.m. (Korean time).
After finishing weekly trading on Monday, the USD-KRW exchange rate, which had maintained the 1,516 KRW (about 1.01 USD) range in the night session, began to decline immediately following Trump’s remarks at 8:05 p.m. (Korean time). It dropped to the 1,486 KRW (about 0.99 USD) range within about 30 minutes, showing a decrease of approximately 30 KRW (about 0.02 USD).
International oil prices also fell sharply. On Monday, Brent crude futures traded at around $99 per barrel on the London Metal Exchange, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures traded in the 90 USD range on the New York Mercantile Exchange. This represents an 8-9% drop compared to levels just before Trump’s remarks.
We avoided the worst, Relief Spreads… Iran Denies Dialogue as Airstrikes Continue
Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, commented that while the five-day delay announced by President Trump is somewhat disappointing, it’s fortunate that the worst-case scenario the market had anticipated is now less likely to materialize.
However, uncertainties remain as there has been no concrete announcement regarding the possibility of peace. Trump indicated that the delay in attacks depends on the success of ongoing meetings and discussions, implying that it is conditional.
Iranian media also deny that both sides engaged in dialogue. On the same day, the semi-official Mehr News Agency reported, citing an Iranian Foreign Ministry official, that there has been no dialogue between Tehran and Washington. Reuters reported that the Israeli military continues airstrikes on Tehran even after Trump’s announcement to postpone attacks.
