A reunion between China’s President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin is imminent. With the Democratic and Authoritarian camps holding diplomatic battles in July, including a trilateral summit among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, the world is watching closely.
Starting on July 2, Xi will visit Kazakhstan as a state guest and attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. Putin will also be present at the summit. The two leaders are scheduled to have a bilateral meeting separate from the two-day SCO summit on July 3 and 4. The Sino-Russian summit will be held a month and a half after the summit that was held on May 16. Moreover, this meeting is the first since the de facto North Korea-Russia military alliance was revived at the North Korea-Russia summit on June 19.
Putin is expected to focus on pulling China closer to his side. Despite the agreement between the two countries to cooperate rather than compete at the summit last May, Russia’s current political situation forces it to desire a relationship with China that is closer to an alliance.
This is also necessary to construct the “North Korea-China-Russia Triangle” image that North Korea and Russia desire. While China’s lukewarm response continues, experts predict that North Korea and Russia will want to create a picture on the international stage, even if it’s not a real alliance.
Experts are also paying close attention to the upcoming North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) meeting in Washington D.C. on July 9. While China and Russia belong to the same Authoritarian camp in the Democracy vs. Authoritarianism structure, they have different approaches, making the outcome of this summit noteworthy.
At the 70th Anniversary of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence event held at the end of June, Xi hinted that China had no intention of accepting the North Korea-China-Russia alliance while targeting the U.S., which promotes multilateral cooperation in different regions.
Professor Hwang Jae Ho of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies said, “China prioritizes protecting its national interests. It will try not to show such a (North Korea-China-Russia) appearance. Also, the benefits China can gain from excessive closeness with Russia will not be significant from China’s perspective.”
On the other hand, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan are expected to apply the NATO summit as another opportunity to show a stronger response to the authoritarian camp.
Although it is not officially confirmed, if a U.S.-South Korea-Japan summit is held at the NATO stage, the three countries are expected to respond more strongly to the heightened threat of the situation on the Korean Peninsula due to the North Korea-Russia alliance.
Depending on the outcome, the arms support for Ukraine that the South Korean government pulled out to respond to the North Korea-Russia alliance could become even clearer. Due to Russia’s strong opposition, a further deepening of friction between the countries seems inevitable.